The study says that the Himalayan Arc is predisposed to a series of great earthquakes

Srinagar: The entire Himalayan Arc is preparing to produce a series of great earthquakes, and the next major earthquake – with a magnitude of 8 or more – could occur during our lifetime, according to a study that reviews geological, historical and geophysical data.

The researchers said the human toll of such an event in densely populated countries across the arc is likely to be unprecedented.

The study indicates that the sequence of future earthquakes in the Himalayas could be analogous to the great earthquakes of the 20th century along the Aleutian subduction zone, which stretches from the Gulf of Alaska to Kamchatka in the Russian Far East.

The review, which appeared in Seismological Research Letters in August, used basic geological principles – stratigraphic analysis, structural analysis, soil analysis, and radiocarbon analysis – to estimate the magnitude and timing of prehistoric earthquakes and assess future risks.

“The entire Himalayan arc extending from the eastern border of Arunachal Pradesh (India) in the east to Pakistan (in the west) was in the past the source of great earthquakes,” study author Stephen J. Wisnowski told PTI.

“These earthquakes will happen again and scientifically, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the next great earthquake happened in our lifetime.” Wisnowski, professor of geology and seismology and director of the Center for New Tectonic Studies at the University of Nevada in Reno, USA, said, “But the decision for our studies is at best within 100 years. Longer than a human’s lifespan. “

Seismologist Suprio Mitra noted that the research matches previous studies.

“The research is a comprehensive review of paleontological studies of past Himalayan earthquakes and a prediction of future events based on the findings,” said Mitra, a professor in the Earth Sciences Department at the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER). Kolkata.

“The Himalayan faults, as shown in the paper, are predisposed to trigger a magnitude 8 earthquake. So yes, we are staring at a big one in the future. How far no one can know from now,” Mitra, who was not involved in the study, told Reuters PTI.

Previous studies have examined the rate of stress buildup that occurs along the Himalayan arc from satellite observations.

In the most recent study, the timing and magnitude of the most recent prehistoric earthquakes have been determined from geology.

The methodology directly applies geological principles to determine the size and pre-timing of earthquakes recorded by sediments that have been shattered and deformed by earthquake fluctuations at sites along the Forward Himalayan Trajectory, Wisnowski said.

He said satellites can help find the location of active earthquake faults, but they are unable to provide any information on prior timing and magnitude of earthquakes about those faults.

“Together, these observations tell us that enough stress has accumulated along almost the entire length of the arc to again produce great earthquakes as we observe in the geological record,” Wisnowski explained.

Major cities along and close to the forward direction in the Himalayas include Chandigarh and Dehradun in India; And Kathmandu, Nepal.

Wisnowski added that the strong and destructive vibrations in such large earthquakes could extend south to the capital of India, Delhi, one of the largest cities in the world with a population of more than 11 million people.

Northern India has seen many small earthquakes in the past four months, which has sparked popular speculation about a major earthquake in the region.

However, he said, scientists have yet to find a systematic relationship between the occurrence of small earthquakes and the timing of larger future earthquakes.

“These small earthquakes are thousands of times smaller than the great earthquakes we are studying,” he said. (Agencies)

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