The cause of the “earthquake drought” of the San Andreas Fault may be the loss of an ancient lake for so long.

Scientists have said that the “seismic drought” currently occurring along a notorious part of the San Andreas Fault may be due to the loss of an ancient lake that was present in the area.

Researchers led by Ph.D. Student Riley Hill of the University of California, San Diego has provided a new idea of ​​why a major rupture has not occurred along the fault for more than 300 years, when historical records indicate that earthquakes of magnitude 7 or greater typically occur on average every 150 years.

The southern San Andreas Fault is capable of causing earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above, which could put people who live in the area at risk. Since no major earthquake occurred, scientists wonder when the next “big” earthquake will occur.

In a presentation at the 2020 annual meeting of the American Geological Society, Hill and his colleagues suggested that an ancient lake that once lay over this southern portion may have been involved in the rifting. They say the weight of the water in Lake Cahuilla, which dried up nearly 1,000 years ago, may have added to the fault line and increased the frequency of large earthquakes, albeit to a very small degree.

Researchers say the absence of a lake above the rift could explain why it has been so long since a major earthquake struck this section.

In their research, the team looked at historical records of earthquakes in the region dating back a thousand years. Then they combined this information with models showing the water pressure in rocks below the lake. Their findings showed that the weight of the lake’s water, combined with the way it would have seeped into the ground below, may have increased the load on the rocks and made them weaker. At a time when the lake was at its deepest level – between 1000 and 1500 AD – the pressure would be greater, which would increase the likelihood of the rift breaking.

Not that [water]Hill said in a statement. “Imagine your hands are stuck together and pushed in. If you try to move them side to side, they don’t want to slide easily. But if you imagine water between them, then there is pressure pushing in. [your hands]To the outside – this basically reduces the pressure on [your hands], And slips easily.

The weight, combined with the water in the rocks, increases the pressure to a critical point faster than if water were not present.

Her results did not mean the rift was not prone to fracturing – the forces driving the tectonic plates that make up the San Andreas boundary are much greater than the pressure of the lost lake, Hill said.

Sylvan Barbu, an assistant professor of earth sciences at the University of Southern California, who was not involved in the study, told Tekk.tv that the research “draws attention to a significant part of the San Andreas fault that is expected to turn into a major discipline. An earthquake at any moment”.

Two seismic shocks along this section of the fault, around the Salton Sea, drew attention to the potential danger the fault posed. “If the fault starts near the Salton Sea, the seismic waves from this impending earthquake will be directed toward the Los Angeles basin and shake the city for a long time,” Barbot said in an email.

Chris Goldfinger, director of the Active Tectonics and Seafloor Mapping Laboratory at Oregon State University who was also not involved in the study, said more data was needed to show that the “drought” was caused by the error. “The problem with most paleoseismic records is that it is too short to have a clear idea of ​​what long-term redundancy, and the fracture patterns that might exist, and thus an understanding that the internal procedures of the system generally lack very important evidence,” he said in an email to Tekk.tv. Unless you know this well, the possibilities are endless.

He also said that the relationship between lake level and the time of earthquakes is “muddy at best”, and few studies provide arguments for or against. He said that if the assumptions in the latter model were correct, then that might happen. However, he said he did not believe that the water shortage would be sufficient to “close” a fast-moving border fault for hundreds of years.

Probably at least [in my opinion]Goldfinger said this is a natural variation of a bug system that we don’t know very well.

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