Earthquake hazards in multi-family residential buildings in the Europe and Central Asia – World region

Introduction

Multi-family apartment buildings in earthquake-prone cities across Central Europe, the Balkans and Central Asia have proven vulnerable and have revealed many structural deficiencies during previous earthquake events. Earthquakes in these areas destroyed certain types of multi-family buildings that could not be repaired or caused complete collapse, resulting in widespread displacement and many deaths.

The weakness of some of these buildings can be attributed to the mass production nature of multi-family apartment buildings, as well as the lack of maintenance, supervision and divestment of investment over many decades. This study investigates the seismic hazards of multi-family buildings constructed prior to 2000 across 27 cities in 20 countries within Europe and Central Asia (ECA) to better understand their behavior and potential losses when exposed to earthquakes, and provide recommendations for mitigation. The table on the right shows the cities and countries mentioned in this study. The target audience for this report includes government officials, policy and decision-makers, engineers, researchers, and analysts, among other stakeholders and beneficiaries. Two supplementary technical documents provide additional insight into the inputs, methods, and results, and can be found in the said business section (Mott MacDonald 2020a, 2020b).

Types of multi-family buildings in the Egyptian Chefs Association

The study evaluated seven broad classes of multi-family buildings found in the cities and countries under study. Buildings are classified into categories based on their behavior when affected by an earthquake, and according to data available across different cities. Building classes have specific features that affect earthquake performance: horizontal and vertical structural elements, material type, connections, building height, build quality, potential deterioration, and construction period. The diagram on the right shows the seven building types and abbreviations used in this study, in addition to the relative weakness of the main subtypes referred to as low, medium and high. For example, the unreinforced construction type has two subspecies: unconfined and enclosed construction.

methodology

A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of multi-family buildings was performed in order to predict damage and losses due to earthquakes in 27 cities. The risk analysis used a combination of risk, exposure, and vulnerability models, and was performed using an open-source program called OpenQuake, developed by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM).

Earthquake Hazard Model: The general earthquake risk model consists of three existing regional models (ESHM13, EMME14 and EMCA15) and modifications based on two local models for seismic hazards (BIGSEES15, BUL18). Regional models were obtained from the GEM2018 global mosaic model of the global earthquake.

Exposure model: The building exposure model was developed by analyzing country-specific, cross-country, and structural information sources. For each building type, several datasets were evaluated to understand the number of buildings, the number of dwellings, the number of residents, as well as the associated construction costs. Sources used include census data (mainly 2011 and 2014 data), national energy efficiency programs, building inventory reports, past projects on risk assessment, international building databases, post-earthquake reports, technical publications, and satellite images. It should be noted that reliability of exposure data varies from city to city, based on available information. The relative reliability of the exposure data is shown in the exposure reliability matrix (Table 2) in the methodology section.

Vulnerability model: The vulnerability models used in risk analysis are based on existing harm and loss models from various sources. Over 400 damage and loss models were reviewed and the most appropriate models were selected for each city and building type. Models have been used to determine the many consequences of an earthquake, including: direct financial losses from building damage, permanent relocation of building occupants based on when the building was repaired, and deaths due to building damage. Similar to exposure data, vulnerability data varies by city.

The relative reliability of vulnerability models is shown in the vulnerability reliability matrix (Table 3) in the methodology section.

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