Study: Fire damage from the Great Vancouver Metro earthquake could cost more than $ 10 billion

Fire damage alone during a major earthquake in Metro Vancouver – not including structural damage and liquefaction from strong seismic waves – could result in property damage of more than $ 10 billion.

The Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction (ICLR), an independent, not-for-profit entity headquartered in Toronto and Western University in London, Ontario, has released a new study assessing five scenarios after a major earthquake, and providing suggestions for reducing fire risk.

The study is the basis for the organization’s upcoming advocacy campaign, which will pressure municipal governments in the region to enact major changes to reduce the impact of the fire from a seismic event. ICLR is established by Canada’s property and loss insurance companies.

The researchers analyzed the impact of a magnitude 9.0 earthquake on the Richter scale, with its epicenter in the Cascadia subduction zone west of Vancouver Island, commonly referred to as the “Great Earthquake”.

They also examined the impact of a 7.3-magnitude event southwest of Port Renfrew, a 7.3-magnitude event in the Strait of Georgia west of the University of British Columbia (UBC), a 6.8 magnitude event over the Juan de Fuca slab west of Richmond and Delta, and a magnitude 6.5 occurring with An outpost center within the city of New Westminster. All scenarios have shallow depths.

Earthquake scenarios were assessed for Metro Vancouver fire hazards after a major seismic event. (Catastrophic Loss Reduction Institute)

A Cascadia 9.0 event on the Richter scale will have the least fire damage, with only 16 medium ignitions, less than one large fire, and $ 160 million in damages.

The two earthquake scenarios in the Strait of Georgia off UBC and Richmond / Delta each have similar fire damage to about 100 ignitions, 30 major fires, and more than $ 7 billion in damages.

The most damaging scenario is the New Westminster earthquake epicenter, which could create 216 ignitions, 47 major fires and $ 10.7 billion in damage.

The report reads: “This loss will be almost entirely insured and will have a very significant impact on the Canadian insurance industry.”

Fire losses will be on top of vibrations and other losses, which will be insured to a lesser extent. One of the leading global reinsurers said that losses of this magnitude would likely lead to the failure of some insurance companies, and would entail secondary and emergency losses, and could lead to financial contagion.

Distribution of average ignition of each region in response to fire for a 6.5 magnitude earthquake scenario with its epicenter in New Westminster. (Catastrophic Loss Reduction Institute)

Their calculations are based on factors such as fire management response, water system damage, weather, growth and final final fire area. However, their work does not take into account the impact of the fires from the energy industry infrastructure, such as the fires at the Burnaby oil terminal and reservoirs, and the LNG terminal in South Richmond.

But ignition processes related to natural gas distribution, which typically account for about 25% of the total number of fires after earthquakes, are taken into account. The region has a comprehensive network of buried natural gas lines operated by FortisBC.

The report says there are “excellent programs” being implemented by the provincial government, the city of Vancouver and provincial risk reduction agencies, including advanced equipment already in place and fire-defense training.

Art show of the new Vancouver Fire Hall 17 at 7070 Knight Street, Vancouver. (HCMA Architecture / Vancouver City)

There are a total of 98 fire halls across Metro Vancouver that contain a total of about 200 fire trucks. This includes 20 fire halls serving the highest authority in the region, Vancouver, where there are 37 fire trucks and 10 backup fire trucks.

Elsewhere, Surrey has 17 fire halls, Burnaby has seven, North Vancouver City has one, North Vancouver District has six, West Vancouver has four, Coquitlam has four, and New Westminster has three.

Fire departments across the region have mutual aid agreements with adjacent departments, and this was recently made clear to the public when the Vancouver Rescue Services (VFRS) deployed a fireboat and other resources to aid the New Westminster Pier Park fire. VFRS has three fireboats.

However, after an earthquake, capacity for assistance may be limited as road infrastructure in the area was considered weak, particularly bridge crossings.

The fire in New Westminster Pier Park, September 13, 2020 (Jonathan Cote / Twitter)

Vancouver building law already has a high degree of fire protection requirements; All new buildings, including single-family homes, must have fire sprinklers. But researchers warn that these sprinklers are likely to malfunction after a major earthquake, given that water supplies from underground water pipes are likely to be damaged.

The study recommends implementing added building code requirements for on-site secondary water supplies within tall towers, in accordance with California Building Code. Retrofits to the existing tower buildings with the addition of 60,000 liters of water tank will occupy the equivalent of two underground parking spaces, and the cost will be much less than 1% of the building’s value.

New standards for natural gas meters must also be developed; All gas meters must be replaced with meters equipped with an automatic gas shutdown device.

In the wake of the devastating fires of the 1995 Kobe earthquake, the government of Japan requested that all gas meters in meters be replaced with such a device. All meters in Japan were replaced within a few years, and these counters worked fine with very few faulty triggers. When there is wrong actuator, natural gas customer can easily reset the machine.

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