Climate change intensifies the tsunami threat in Alaska

This story originally appeared in High Country News and is part of the Climate Office collaboration.

Tucked in front of glacier-covered mountains, Bigesh Towers loom over Whittier, Alaska. More than 80 percent of the small-town’s inhabitants live in Cold War-era barracks in this secret former military port, whose harbor every summer teems with traffic: barnacles, cruise ships, sailboats, giant yachts, and cruises. This summer, travel restrictions caused by the Coronavirus have hampered tourism in the normally busy port. Then came warnings of a potentially devastating tsunami.

The inhabitants of Whittier have been aware of the tsunamis for generations. In 1964, the Good Friday earthquake was followed by a 25-foot wave that destroyed the infrastructure of the waterfront, lifting and spinning railways and dragging them out to sea. The Good Friday earthquake – which killed 13 people here and caused $ 10 million in losses – still fills Wheater’s memory.

With tons of rocks and rubble floating precariously over a nearby fjord, ready to be smashed into the sea, the city’s present is shaped by its past and preparations for an unknown future. The cause of this destabilization is climate change: the likelihood of tsunamis increases in Alaska as hill slopes, once reinforced by glaciers and heavily frozen ground, loosen their grip on previously stable slopes.

On May 14, a press release issued by the Alaska Natural Resources Department and a public message from 14 scientists warned local residents of the potential for a tsunami caused by a landslide. Alaska has identified three similar events in the past: Tsunamis in 2015 and 1967 occurred in remote areas, while one in 1958 killed two people whose boat capsized. But the precarious slope of Barry Arm, a steep, narrow gorge in Prince William Sound, is much more dangerous. The state’s chief geologist said in a press release in May that the potential energy of a catastrophic slide here is about 10 times greater than previous events.

The Barry Arm landslide has been heading towards the ocean since at least 1957, when Barry Glacier – who once seized the base of the foot of a mountain and stopped the slope – initially pulled its bearing wall of ice from the bottom of the rocky slope. As the glacier receded, so did the slope support system – pulling the rock face down toward the ocean, leaving a distinct jagged indentation on the hillside. Between 2009 and 2015, Barry Glacier retreated past the lower edge of the landslide, and the ramp went down 600 feet. Since 2006, the Barry Glacier has receded by more than two miles. Scientists believe the slope will likely collapse within the next 20 years – and they could do so within a year.

Climate change is making the Earth more unstable and increasing the risk of tsunamis caused by landslides. As the climate warms, glaciers melt and recede, withdrawing from the hillsides that once embraced them. The Bari Ice Wall – which once anchored the hills in place, backing it up against the mountains of the fjord – became weak, moving away from the face of the rock, releasing its support and revealing an unstable slope sliding toward the ocean. Brentwood Higman, geologist and executive director of Ground Truth Alaska, is working with other scientists to research the impact of climate change on tsunamis caused by landslides. “[These events] “It’s worth worrying about, regardless of climate change,” Hegman said. “But there are a number of reasons to believe that climate change makes it more likely.”

As the glaciers recede, the land above them becomes more turbulent as well. The rugged Alpine region in south-central Alaska is starting to melt dramatically. Slabs of rock, dirt and ice that were previously frozen cause trapped fluids to be released and become more prone to slipping onto mountains.

Another less visible symptom of climate change is the increased risk. When there is more water in the atmosphere, the precipitation becomes more intense. Hegman said rain, even more so than earthquakes, is prone to triggering landslides. Anna Lyjdal, an associate scientist at the Woods Hole Research Center, said climate change will make landslides more likely and more frequent. “It is a new emerging threat, which is why it is urgent to make an assessment of where these unstable slopes are and where they pose a danger to people,” said Lyjdal.

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