Oy’s ruling may indicate problems in the future with plans to restart nuclear reactors

OSAKA – Friday’s Osaka County Court’s decision to revoke central government approval to operate two reactors at the Aoi Nuclear Power Plant run by the Kansai Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO) stunned, saying its earthquake safety standards calculations were flawed. Nuclear power industry.

The decision, the first of its kind, will likely be appealed and may be revoked. But the result raises fundamental questions about nuclear energy safety and the future role of the energy source.

What is the dispute in the court case?

The two reactors No.3 and 4 at the Aoi Power Plant restarted in July 2012 and were the first in Japan to be restarted after March 11, 2011, the Tohoku earthquake and triple collapse at the Fukushima plant forced the country to fully nuclear power the fleet currently.

In the case, filed in June 2012, about 130 plaintiffs argued that despite seismic fault lines located near the plant site, in Fukui Prefecture near the Sea of ​​Japan, KEPCO underestimated the size and strength of the potential earthquake when it designed Reactors No.3 and 4. , Which went into operation in 1991 and 1993, respectively.

Established in September 2012, the State Nuclear Regulatory Commission is committed to prioritizing public safety and a true safety culture. Prior to this, plaintiffs argued that tsunami and volcanic hazards warrant an injunction against restarting under the temporary safety rules adopted after March 11, 2011. After the creation of the NRA, the Oi reactors continued to win approval to restart in 2017 under newer, more stringent safety standards. At that point, prosecutors accused the government of failing to follow regulations under these new safety standards.

The NRA consists of nuclear and seismic experts who have established stricter earthquake safety standards that utilities must first meet if they want permission to restart their reactors.

One of the new standards includes calculations of what is known as the basic number of ground motion of earthquakes, a statistic used to determine structural vulnerability to earthquakes and one used by utilities when designing earthquake resistance in nuclear plants. The lower the ground motion number, the lower the requirements that must be met for earthquake resistant structures.

Kepco, under NRA guidance, used a number for its design that is based on averaging the strength of potential ground motion from an earthquake. But the Osaka court ruled that this approach was inappropriate, and that the NRA did not consider the possibility of an earthquake that would produce much stronger than average ground motion.

The government responded that the NRA’s accounts were adequate and that the plaintiff’s claim lacked scientific rationale.

What makes this case different from previous court decisions on nuclear power plants?

The Oi case is unique because it is the first time that a court has specifically ruled against the central government, in the form of the NRA, over the way it conducts the screening process and the nature of its earthquake safety standards, which have been adapted after Fukushima, which is used to determine whether The reactor would have been approved to restart.

There have been a number of court cases to halt the reopening or reopening of nuclear power plants, including requests for interim court orders. In 2016, the Otsu District Court issued an injunction regarding two other KEPCO reactors in Fukui – Takahama Reactors No.3 and 4 – which were successfully lifted from the energy company. But those cases, and the ensuing veto, were mostly based on high-tech arguments. The Oi case accused the government of violating its own standards, and declared that its safety standards would be the most stringent in the world.

What has been the reaction in other localities with nuclear power plants?

Miyagi Governor Yoshihiro Murai, who just agreed to restart Tohoku Electric Power’s Onagawa No.2 reactor last month, did not comment on the Oi ruling but said his decision was not wrong, saying that while he is not a nuclear expert, it is natural to give Priority for governance of the NRA.

In Shizuoka Prefecture, where the Chوبbu Electric Corporation’s Hamaoka nuclear power plant is located, there was mixed interaction in towns near the station, with some saying that the Osaka court case would not affect the plant and others expressing uncertainty.

Other local leaders have not commented directly on the issue, but have set their own criteria for approval to restart the nuclear reactor in their area. Earlier this week, Kashiwazaki Mayor Masahiro Sakurai, who was re-elected last month, indicated he had agreed to restart the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa No. 7 reactor of Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings Inc. Under certain conditions.

This included national funding to improve the plant’s emergency evacuation plans, such as a better system for snow removal on local access roads and better port facilities.

But in Fukui, the ruling stunned other towns with nuclear power plants and raised questions about what would happen next. In Mihama, Reactor No. 3 was scheduled to restart sometime after January. KEPCO’s Takahama Reactors No.1 and 2 also received approval, and the facility had plans to restart them after March and May 2021.

What might the decision mean for the future of Japan’s nuclear industry?

An appeal to the Osaka High Court by the government means that the Oi reactors can still be restarted, despite the lower court ruling. But the Ui case could form the basis for similar lawsuits in other nuclear cities against the government.

Regardless of the final individual judgments in these cases, a series of lawsuits would create a new political headache for the central government. It will have to work harder, and provide more local financial assistance, to convince cities that host nuclear plants that NRA earthquake standards are safe in order to gain reboot approval from local leaders. All of this could lead to further delays on the part of utilities seeking a quick restart.

Further potential delays, in turn, raise questions and concerns about the role of nuclear energy in Japan’s energy mix for 2030. Nuclear energy is supposed to provide between 20% and 22% of the country’s electricity by then. It is also expected to play a role in helping Japan become carbon neutral by 2050.

The facilities were already grappling with the tough questions of decommissioning costs of old plants and creating medium and long-term storage facilities for nuclear waste. They now also face the task of convincing the public and local leaders that nuclear power, despite Osaka’s rule, remains a safe and price-competitive energy source – even as investment in renewable energy increases and the costs of some renewables continue to fall.

Oi’s decision means that these questions and doubts, including those regarding the extent to which the government will continue to rely on nuclear energy to achieve its energy and carbon neutral goals, are likely to be higher.

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