Afghanistan: Earthquake contingency plan (released in November 2020) – Afghanistan

Scenario overview

Afghanistan is located in a seismically active region, and earthquakes pose a major threat to many parts of the country, including a number of densely populated urban areas. In the past 10 years, more than 7,000 people lost their lives due to earthquakes in Afghanistan, with an average of 560 deaths per year. Among the potentially active faults, a shaman fault, Harry Rudd fault, central Badakhshan fault and Darvaz fault are expected to present the greatest seismic hazard.

Each of these faults is capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 7 or 8. However, in seismic regions, it is also possible that there are other undiscovered faults that may pose additional risks, as was the case with the Christchurch earthquake in New Zealand.

Hazard maps show that the likelihood of strong vibration is higher in northeastern Afghanistan and along the corridor adjacent to the Shaman Fault System, where there is a 20 percent or higher chance of an earthquake within the next 50 years. 8th intensity (destructive) vibration on a modified Mercalli scale.

Among the major cities in Afghanistan, Kabul faces by far the greatest seismic risk, mainly due to its proximity to the Shaman fault, but also because in recent years Kabul has experienced rapid urban growth and population growth, which has resulted in unsafe and substandard building practices, resulting in Leaves the city at great risk of severe impacts from the earthquake.

Jalalabad is located in an area of ​​similar seismic risk to Kabul and has historically experienced earthquakes on a larger scale than Kabul. The hazard in Mazar-i-Sharif is about half the risk in Kabul, largely because it is further from the concentrated sources of earthquakes. Herat is near the Hari Rud fault, but due to this fault’s low slip rate, large earthquakes are rare. Kandahar, located in southeastern Afghanistan, is farthest from tectonic movements in the northeast and farther from the Shaman fault, thus reducing its seismic risk.

In the planning scenario, a 7.6M earthquake struck Kabul and 14 other provinces, killing around 4,400 people. The intensity of the vibration ranges from the eighth (intense) on the modified Mercalli intensity scale in parts of Kabul, Kapisa and Laghman, to the seventh (very strong) in Nangarhar, and the sixth (strong) in Nuristan, Panjshir, Parwan, Logar and Paktia and. Wardak Square. In this scenario, 7 million people are affected by the earthquake in the worst-affected areas (regions with a sixth tremor and above). Of these 7 million people, an estimated 3 million are the most vulnerable and in need of humanitarian assistance. This includes 1.8 million people living in urban areas and 1.2 million in rural areas.

The earthquake caused extensive damage to infrastructure in Kabul as well as Jalalabad. The vast majority of buildings in Kabul, and other Afghan cities, are adobe and masonry. Approximately 30 percent of these are expected to collapse if subjected to severe vibration, and 60 percent will suffer damage. Cities also have fewer engineered or semi-engineered buildings constructed of reinforced concrete, but these are not considered seismically sound. Mortality rates associated with the collapse of these concrete buildings are also more important than the collapse of brick buildings or buildings. According to the construction field surveys conducted, an estimated 780,000 homes will be destroyed or severely damaged, leading to significant displacement and the need to establish collective centers, and the establishment of spontaneous settlements across the country.

With an estimated 60 percent of Afghanistan vulnerable to landslides, and 7 percent of housing in urban areas are spontaneous dwellings on hillsides, it is very likely that a 7.6 million earthquake would cause multiple landslides that would lead to significant losses in Spirits.

In addition to damage to poorly constructed housing, hospitals, and other health facilities, schools and government buildings can expect significant damage, as is the case with other infrastructure, including roads, bridges, and water networks in and out of Kabul. Huge amounts of debris will need to be removed to enable access to affected areas. Landslides will also exacerbate access challenges by blocking transportation routes to affected communities, including the main access road between Kabul and Jalalabad. The road blockages will also significantly affect the availability of imported basic goods and relief items that arrive through the Torkham border crossing. This will have a major impact on the availability of foodstuffs in the markets in the affected areas and the increase in food prices.

Massive damage and destruction of homes can lead to the displacement of large numbers of people. In the first few weeks after the earthquake, people are expected to sleep in the open due to aftershocks, with families gathering wherever they can, but especially near government services or military buildings for basic assistance and security.

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