The earthquake did not hit India but rather Tajikistan

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A magnitude 5.9 (Mw) earthquake occurred in the Tajikistan region, rupturing a deeper part of the lithosphere at a depth of 92 km, according to the European Mediterranean Seismological Center (EMSC). The earthquake was reported on February 12 at 17:01: 35.2 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Although the earthquake occurred more than 400 kilometers north of the Kashmir Basin, it succeeded in creating panic in the valley, in Punjab and surrounding areas.

Geologically, it is not an unexpected earthquake and such earthquakes are a routine occurrence in the region and are the result of the continuous tectonic collision between the lithosphere sheets in India and Eurasia. Therefore, it is not true that the earthquake occurred in India, which was unfortunately reported by many media reports. This shows more problems than the earthquake itself.

The occurrence of earthquakes in the Himalayan region are very important aspects of tectonics because it is an effective mechanism to release years of stress stored within rocks. The dynasty in the Himalayan regions is a direct result of the northward thrust from the India Plate against Eurasia. Geologically, Tajikistan is one of the important regions because it is the place where tectonic transport changes over active faults, and connects faults that extend over Kashmir with those in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Therefore, the Kashmir region is tectonically linked to the border regions on all sides, and the earthquake that will occur in those areas should shake Kashmir as well.

Earthquakes don’t demarcate human boundaries but rather tectonic boundaries. The intense shaking that has been reported in parts of the Kashmir region may be due to the amplification of earthquake waves upon entering the quaternary sediments of the Kashmir Basin. In areas filled with incoherent sediments, earthquake-related vibration will be amplified and, consequently, severe shaking was reported by the Kashmir and Peshawar basins due to the above process.

The Tajikistan earthquake is another kind of reminder of the need to clear the ground for a major earthquake that could happen at any time in the future. The tectonic and earthquake history of the Kashmir region clearly indicates a major earthquake, and if it did, it would be catastrophic. I would say that the devastation could be much worse than the Kashmir earthquake of 2005 that killed more than 70,000 people in Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, and caused damage in the Kashmir basin as well.

The prediction of a devastating earthquake in Kashmir is painful but real, and the unfortunate fact remains that we have not yet developed a robust mechanism for avoiding such assessments. The basic work of dealing with earthquake devastation has yet to begin, and we are sitting on active faults ready to slip and it is only a matter of time before the unfortunate facts unfold before our eyes. No one wants to see such devastation in any part of the world, and Kashmir is no exception. Therefore, I ask the administrative authorities to kindly make quick arrangements regarding earthquake risks so that earthquake risk coexistence in Kashmir becomes a reality. There is absolutely no way we can predict the exact timing of a future earthquake, and the best remedy is to stay prepared for earthquake risks.

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The Earthquake Did Not Strike India But Tajikistan

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Dr. Afrooz Ahmad Shah the author is an Assistant Professor of Structural Geology and Physical and Geological Sciences at the University of Brunei Darussalam. It can be accessed at: [email protected]

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