How was last week’s earthquake judged a continuation of the 2011 Tohoku disaster?

Earthquakes has always been a pretty guessing game, and this one is no different.

At around 11 pm on Saturday, February 13th, a 7.3-magnitude earthquake struck the Northeast (Tohoku) region of Japan. It was the deadliest earthquake in Japan in a while, but the most bizarre part is that it was said to have followed the 2011 Tohoku earthquake that occurred nearly ten years ago.

Not insane that an aftershock could be delayed by ten years is literally a blink of an eye from a geological standpoint, and some major earthquakes around the world have caused aftershocks that have lasted for centuries. However, how was this determined to be an aftershock so quickly?

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), which issues earthquake warnings and reports, has three criteria when determining which earthquakes are aftershocks:

1) Earthquakes caused by large earthquakes directly 2) Earthquakes caused by situations caused by large earthquakes 3) All earthquakes around the epicenter of the large earthquake, 210,000 square kilometers (81,000 square miles) in the case of the Tohoku earthquake

To learn more about what that means, we need to understand the basic mechanisms behind the Tohoku earthquake. The reason for this was the slow movement of the tectonic plates below the Pacific Ocean sliding under the plate on which Japan sits at the edge. However, the term “slip” is considered to be a moderate matter, as massive amounts of pressure are continuously applied to miles of coarse rock.

▼ 3D schematic diagram of various plates being milled against each other next to Japan

Every now and then, a lot of pressure builds up where these plates meet and must give off something, which leads to sudden and powerful movements of earthquakes. However, plate tectonics can be difficult to visualize, so let’s instead apply JMA standards to this video of a car crashing its way out of a Tesco parking lot.

The video is shown before the moment of impact

For illustration purposes, suppose the blue car is a Pacific plate and all other parked cars are Japanese. That car will somehow leave Tesco, and as with the earthquake, how much damage it will cause in doing so is anyone’s guess.

The blue car’s first strike can be considered the main earthquake that paves the way for it to leave. If that hit causes one of the other cars to roll over or overturn another vehicle, these accidental impacts will be considered aftershocks of the first blow. This is the easiest to understand in the sense of aftershock as a direct result of an action as described in the first criterion.

In addition, long after the blue car took off, the axle on one of the hit cars suddenly went off and the steering wheel fell off, this will be considered as an aftershock according to Part Two of the criteria. It also makes sense because despite the delay and the fact that it wasn’t direct, the damage was still likely due to the initial attack.

However, if another vehicle was damaged the next day in the same section of the parking lot, it would still be considered a dependent on the final standard. This is clearly where things get problematic.

Part 3 looks silly in the case of the video because we can clearly see what is happening and judge the existence of a causal relationship. However, with plate tectonics, we are pretty much blinded and have to make some assumptions based on very limited information, like listening to this video with your eyes closed and not having an explanation for what’s going on.

However, sensor technology is getting better all the time, and we can at least get a good idea of ​​how each earthquake happened. The major 2011 earthquake arose from the movement in the area where the two plates touch.

▼ A simple visualization of how the 2011 Tohoku earthquake happened; Try to ignore heavy breathing or whatever it sounds like

Other large aftershocks occurred due to the breaking of the plate on which Japan sits. It would be as if a lot of people used this science center exhibit and the brown plate suddenly cracked in one place. That’s reasonable, but in the case of the 2021 earthquake, the crack is believed to have occurred within the Pacific Plate, or within the portion of the Science Expo blue plate that was under the brown. In the case of a Tesco video, it would be as if the blue car suddenly exploded a month later.

Since we are talking about one of the strongest earthquakes the modern world has ever seen, it is likely a reasonable assumption that the 2011 earthquake did indeed cause stress and / or damage within the Pacific plate that led to the 2021 earthquake. But this is still only an assumption. It means that the first part of the second parts of the criteria is probable but uncertain, and the only part we know for sure is the third criterion which is very vague.

Since the stakes are always high when dealing with these natural disasters, it is really helpful to be sure. Even JMA said on February 15 that it was considering revising its standards in light of recent activity, but with current technological limitations there might not be much they can do now.

In the meantime, all we can do is what we have always hoped for, keep supplies ready and know what to do and where to go in the event of an earthquake.

Source: Sankei Biz, Iza, My Game News FlashTop Photo: © SoraNews24 ● Want to hear about SoraNews24’s latest articles as soon as they are published? Follow us on Facebook and Twitter!

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