The SunLive – East Cape and Kermadec aftershocks raise questions

The National Geographic Hazard Monitoring Center has recorded more than 140 earthquakes of M4 magnitude or higher since the M7.2 earthquake Friday morning.

“There are really questions forming about whether this event was a single rupture – or something more complex,” says GNS seismologist, Dr. Matt Gerstenberger.

GNS Science experts are already looking at this sequence of earthquakes to understand the relationship between the Kermadec earthquake sequence and the East Cape sequence. They are also looking in more detail at the M7.2 earthquake, which looks like a very complex rupture.

GNS Science seismologists have developed three scenarios for what earthquakes might cause over the next 30 days. These are the general scenarios that include both sequences.

It’s natural to ask the question of how many aftershocks have occurred since M7.2, but the answer isn’t that simple.

After a major earthquake, such as the M7.2 East Cape event on Friday, we expect more earthquakes in the area, some of which could be felt more widely. But after this dramatic series of earthquakes, calculating the number of aftershocks is no easy task, Matt says.

“We are dealing with events occurring hundreds of kilometers offshore, away from GeoNet’s seismic network. There are a lot of earthquakes happening right now – from large earthquakes (M6.1 after 1:00 pm on Saturday) to small earthquakes – And it overlaps with time, the distance from the network and the interfering signals from these earthquakes make it difficult to recognize them from one another.

“We experienced three large earthquakes: M7.2 in the East Cape around 2.30 am on Friday morning, and two in Kermadecs, M7.4 and M8.1 several hours later. These create two separate earthquakes, with the potential to affect the North Island.

“What we can say for sure is that for now, the sequence is behaving as we expect it to.”

Aftershocks from the M7.2 East Cape earthquake

In short, in the aftermath of a major earthquake, we expect to see a lot of earthquakes of varying size – over time, they get fewer and smaller, Matt says.

But there is still an increased possibility of a bigger event and we need to remain vigilant. Every earthquake is a good reminder to always be prepared. Protect yourself from earthquake first and drop the cap and secure it while shaking. Then, if it’s long or strong, go ahead.

Tall or strong?

In the event of an earthquake, drop, cover and wait while shaking. Protect yourself from an earthquake first.

Once the shaking stops, move immediately to the nearest elevated area, outside of all tsunami evacuation areas, or as far inland as possible.

NEMA (National Emergency Management Agency) has a great website with information on what to do before, during, and after a tsunami. There you can also find maps of tsunami evacuation areas around New Zealand, and supplies you need in case of an emergency.

Need to talk? If you want support or advice, you have feelings of anxiety, tension, long-term fear, hopelessness, anger, or if you just need to talk to someone. Please text or phone 1737 to speak to a trained counselor in the National Telehealth Service. It’s free to call or text.

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