March 11, 2011 North Coast – Times Standard

10 PM March 10, 2011. I was sitting in front of my computer when I shot my phone with a tsunami statement issued by the West Coast Tsunami Warning Center in Alaska. An earthquake occurred off the coast of Japan. The initial size was 7.9.

As I mentioned last week, this caught my attention for a number of reasons. The initial amounts are likely to change. Tsunami centers and seismic networks use more limited analyzes to quickly determine the initial positioning and magnitude. It takes time to do more detailed data processing. Large earthquakes are difficult to get a quick read.

At first glance, this may seem counterintuitive. A large earthquake has stronger seismic signals and that would make it easier, right? No – it depends on the duration. A large earthquake is bigger because the fault is larger and it takes longer to break. It’s hard to determine the size of something before it’s finished. The 2004 earthquake in the Indian Ocean took roughly 10 minutes to rupture, starting off the coast of Sumatra and only halting after 800 miles off the coast of Burma.

In addition to the rupture time, a longer wave train is difficult to analyze. Usually a rapid assessment is made from the first two minutes of the seismic signal. This cut is made before the reflected and refracted signals begin to arrive, which makes decoding them all the more messy. New technologies are being developed to aid in this process, but in 2011 it was still difficult to do so.

I always feel anxious when I see an earthquake in the upper 7 or lower 8 band. Experience has taught me that it can be a larger whole unit. The difference between 7.9 and 8.9 is not trivial, especially when it comes to the region of vibration and tsunami generation.

To increase my anxiety, Troy called Nicolini a few minutes later. Troy was the Eureka National Weather Service (WCM) meteorologist at the time. WCM’s mission is to coordinate alerts and ensure the emergency alert system functions and that we all understand what the messages and required actions mean. In the United States, tsunami alerts are issued through the Weather Service, not the United States Geological Survey. We were both part of the post-tsunami survey team to Chile just a year ago. In 2006, we worked together on a tsunami caused by M8.3 northern Japan that caused $ 24 million in damage to the Port of Crescent City. We had cause for concern.

Half an hour later, my concerns were justified when the U.S. Geological Survey revised the size to 8.8. The final decision made months later raised it to 9.1. Troy’s alarm bells and my head are now ringing loudly. There is no doubt now that vulnerable areas like Crescent Harbor are at risk.

The rest of the night is foggy. I’m turning the phone on and off with Troy, and communicating with my mates via text and email. Just after 11 p.m., we received an expectation from the University of Southern California that a tsunami could produce heights from two to nine feet along the California coast. Another colleague runs a model that indicates Crescent City could see something similar to what happened in 1964.

We were fortunate that the United States had greatly expanded the tsunami warning system after 2004. A number of ocean floor pressure sensors (DARTs) were operational and two of them were not far from the earthquake rupture zone. It’s just after midnight when I watch the nearest DART. The peak amplitude is about three feet. It might not sound like much, but it’s huge for a deepwater tsunami that takes my breath away. There is no doubt in my mind that we are in trouble.

It is now an hour and a half after the earthquake and there is a new source of information. Japan’s National Information Agency NHK has a fleet of helicopters spread across the country. They are in the air within 30 minutes of the earthquake and start live broadcasts as the tsunami approaches the coast of Fukushima, Miyagi and Iwate prefectures. Like many of you, I am dumbfounded but what I see.

At 12:51 AM on Friday, March 11, the Global Tobacco Control Board issued a tsunami warning for the California coast north of Point Conception. The letter estimates arrival times at a number of locations. The estimated time to reach our coast is around 7:30 AM, and an expected water rise of 2.5 meters (8.2 feet) in Crescent City. The good news is that the tide is low. The tsunami arrived in 1964 at the peak of an 8-foot high tide.

Warnings mean evacuation. Only county officials can order an eviction. The officials of Del Norte, Humboldt and Mendocino, in coordination with Troy, made the decision in a phased response. In Crescent City, boat owners have been advised to take their boats into deep waters and a steady flow of commercial fishing boats exited the port from 1:30 to 6 a.m. From expectations, Humboldt Bay was unlikely to be in danger, but port officials checked the moorings . The emergency alarm system was activated at 4:30 am, with radio and TV messages, sirens sounding and notifying people in the tsunami area door to door. I had nothing to do with efforts on Earth. I spent these early morning hours gathering as much information as possible and spent the rest of the day at the Eureka Weather Service office interpreting data and conducting media interviews so that everyone else could fulfill their responsibilities. March 2011 tsunami. Some are emergency managers and responders, others are scientists and educators. They provide a glimpse of what happened that day and why it is important to remember. You can listen to their stories at https://rctwg.humboldt.edu/remembering-great-east-japan-earthquake-march-11-2011. There is even a place where you can add your own story.

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