The most likely location of a potential explosion: near Fagradalsfjall

Site of recent tremors. Map / Icelandic Meteorological Office

Seismic activity on the Rikgan Peninsula increased dramatically at 5:20 am this morning at the southern end of the magma dam that formed south of Fagradalsfjall, according to reports mbl.is. This tremor lasted until around 7 am. The tremor was very localized and likely indicates that the dam is increasing in size, according to vedur.is.

According to Christine Gunsdottir, a natural hazards specialist at the Icelandic Meteorological Office, the most likely site for a potential volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes Peninsula would be south of Mount Fagradalsfjall, mbl.is reports.

No major earthquakes occurred overnight, but 930 earthquakes have been recorded since midnight.

It is the third time that the pulses have hit the area since the seismic activity began on Wednesday last week.

“I think this is a sign that the magma dam is growing very quickly,” Kristen told mbl.is early this morning, referring to the latest jolt pulse.

I told mbl.is yesterday that the most active area is at the southern end of the magma dam, where not only does the dam appear to be growing toward the southwest, but also close to the surface, to a depth of only about a kilometer. .

She added that the end of the dam recently extended between one kilometer and 1.5 kilometers towards the southwest.

It appears that magma only exists at Fagradalsfjall, she said. It predicted that “this is the most likely location of an eruption, in the far south of this magma dam.”

The Scientific Council of the Civil Protection and Emergency Management Department announced yesterday that the possible scenarios include the following:

Seismic activity will decrease in the coming days or weeks.

Seismic activity will increase and include larger earthquakes of up to 6 magnitude near Fagradalsfjall.

A 6.5-magnitude earthquake originating from the Brennstsfjöll Mountains could strike.

Magma penetration near Fagradalsfjall could continue with either outcome:

1. Magma intrusion activity can decrease and magma solidify.

2. This will result in an excessive outbreak [i.e. one in which lava steadily flows onto the       ground], Which leads to lava flow, which most likely will not pose a threat to inhabited areas.

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