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Millions are at risk of the expected earthquake in Istanbul

 


Recent official statements about an expected earthquake in Istanbul confirm that millions of people living in Turkey’s largest city face imminent disaster due to official inaction.

On February 18, officials from the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality (IMM) and the municipalities of Esenler and Avcilar submitted studies to the Seismic Measures Research Committee of the Turkish Parliament. The Esenler and Avcılar regions are in the high risk category.

Rescue services personnel search the debris of a collapsed building for survivors in Izmir, Turkey, early Saturday, October 31, 2020 (AP Photo / Emrah Gurel)

Their statements indicated that the dimensions of the damage caused by an expected earthquake in Istanbul could be much greater than previously thought.

Speaking at the committee meeting, IMM Deputy Secretary-General Maher Polat said it is estimated that 200,000 buildings in Istanbul will suffer moderate to severe damage in the expected earthquake. As a result, approximately three million people may be affected.

He said that the numbers obtained as a result of monitoring buildings in the Avcilar area quadrupled the previous estimates and doubled those in the Silivri area. “We expect that the number of buildings that will be damaged throughout Istanbul will be twice the most optimistic figure,” he said, adding that “the number of buildings built in Istanbul before the year 2000 is 790,000.”

Tayfun Kahraman, Head of IMM’s Seismic Risk Management and Urban Improvement Department, said that there are 1.16 million buildings in Istanbul. The fifth would become unusable in the event of a potentially major earthquake, and many would face the risk of complete collapse.

Kahraman indicated that 48,000 buildings are expected to be damaged and are in danger of collapsing in a 7.5-magnitude earthquake in Istanbul. They expect damage to water pipes, sewage and natural gas systems in a major earthquake. Residents will also face the risk of severe epidemics, should an earthquake take place amid a raging pandemic of COVID-19.

However, Haluk Sur, President of the Foundation for Urban Transformation and Urbanization (KENTSEV), cited data from the Kandilli Observatory and Seismological Research Institute and declared that there are 1,164,000 buildings registered in Istanbul and 4,500,000 residents of those buildings.

According to Sur’s interview with Anadolu Agency on February 23, 22 percent of all buildings in Istanbul were built before 1980. It is estimated that there are 1,051,000 homes, and 3152,000 people live in these buildings. Since even the smallest of these buildings are over 40 years old and many of them are between 50 and 60 years old, it is expected that the residents of these buildings will be in grave danger in the event of a major earthquake.

Indeed, many buildings and people are at risk. After the Marmara earthquake on August 17, 1999, the building regulations in Turkey were changed. In assessments to date of a possible earthquake in Istanbul, the year 2000, when new regulations and laws came into effect, is a milestone in terms of building construction.

The 790,000 buildings before 2000 are considered to be risky in terms of materials and engineering. These buildings contain 3,054,123 residences. If these buildings had an average population of 3.3 inhabitants per place of residence prevalent in the Istanbul region, the number of people at risk in an earthquake could be three times higher than the number reported by Tire.

Moreover, these buildings are concentrated in the working-class neighborhoods of Istanbul.

Turkey is an earthquake-prone country, many of its cities are built on active faults, and it has a catastrophic earthquake record. In the 1999 Marmara earthquake, official reports stated that around 18,000 people were killed, and more than 25,000 injured. Unofficial reports put the real number of dead at 50,000, and there were 100,000 wounded.

The 2011 earthquake in eastern Van Province left more than 600 people dead and nearly 4,200 injured. In the 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Elazig on January 24 last year, 41 people were killed and more than 1,600 injured. After a 6.9-magnitude earthquake off the Greek island of Samos on October 30, 2020, 117 people were killed, 1,034 others were injured, and 15,000 were displaced in the Turkish city of Izmir.

As scholars continue to warn of the dangers, the national government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party as well as municipal governments, including those under the control of opposition parties, are wasting valuable time and concealing official crimes by preparing only optimistic reports. On the earthquake.

While the government undoubtedly bears the primary responsibility for this massive devastation and death that puts millions of workers at risk, opposition parties are also complicit in the earthquake disasters caused by the capitalist profit system. Last year, a report by the International Islamic Movement, which is dominated by the CHP, claimed that there would only be 14,000 deaths after a 7.2-magnitude earthquake in Istanbul, where 16 million people live.

Well-known geologist Professor Nasi Gur bluntly stated: “This is not true,” describing the risks facing millions of workers in Istanbul. “Simple calculation: there are 1.6 million buildings. Let’s reduce all deaths to one percent in Istanbul. That means 16,000 buildings. Suppose each building has four floors. It means 64,000 floors. If we think there are two apartments on each floor, that means 128,000 apartments.” Put four people in each apartment Does it exceed 400,000? [deaths]? “

Research conducted especially after the 1999 earthquake showed that an earthquake projected on the North Anatolian fault line is likely to have a magnitude of at least 7.2 in the Sea of ​​Marmara, off Istanbul. This will lead to disaster not only in the largest city in Turkey, but also in the neighboring industrial cities such as Kocaeli, Bursa and Tekirdag.

However, the ruling class and governments of all the establishment parties did nothing against this coming disaster in Istanbul, where 16 million people live, or nearly 20 percent of Turkey’s population. Instead of preparing for a massive earthquake that scientists warned for years, the wealth created by workers has been transferred to the capitalist class.

For years especially in Istanbul, the “urban transformation”, introduced as an earthquake preparedness measure, has been a way to distance working-class residents from the city center and build luxury housing for the wealthy. The primary goal of this policy is not to protect residents from earthquakes, but to boost the profits of construction companies and enrich the richest strata of society.

At the same time, workers are sent to areas where the buildings are considerably older and risk becoming deadly traps in a major earthquake.

This is politically more criminal as tens of thousands of homes remain empty in Istanbul, and technology and labor are in place to quickly build hundreds of thousands of homes. However, such solutions are not implemented by the ruling class and its political representatives, as they conflict with the profit interests of construction companies and the political goals of the capitalist state.

Erdogan’s government allocates billions of Turkish liras to the project of a canal between the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​Marmara, the “Istanbul Canal”. Meanwhile, construction contractors are receiving billions of lira in tax credits, and hundreds of billions are being funneled into the financial oligarchy in rescue money after the pandemic. Then it is claimed that no urban transformation funds exist to save hundreds of thousands, even millions of lives.

The contradiction between a capitalist system based on private profit and the basic needs of society was recently exposed in the disastrous official treatment of the COVID-19 epidemic and the recent collapse of the electricity supply is the US state of Texas.

A massive public works plan is necessary to rebuild cities around the world threatened by natural disasters based on scientific planning and the highest level of security to provide everyone with the basic right to safe housing. The implementation of this solution requires the conscious struggle to transfer power to the working class – the struggle for world socialism, which is based on planning world economic life around social needs and not private profit.

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