Officials: A dam in Oregon could fail in a major earthquake

The US Army Corps of Engineers determined that a major earthquake – expected to occur again in the Pacific Northwest sooner or later – could cause drainage gates in a dam in Oregon to curve, resulting in “potentially catastrophic flooding”.

The Legion said late Monday it would try to reduce the risk by reducing the lake’s maximum height by five feet starting in April. Hundreds of thousands of people, including residents of Salem, the Oregon capital, live downstream from the Detroit Dam, whose construction in the 1950s created the narrow, nine-mile-long Lake Detroit.

The move comes as Oregon and the wider Pacific Northwest are beginning to grapple with the “big step” that experts say is coming. Earthquakes in the Cascadia Subduction Zone, which extends from the ocean off Northern California to Vancouver, Canada, have an average strength of around 9.0, making it among the largest in the world.

According to Chris Goldfinger, a professor at Oregon State University and a seismologist, the probability of an earthquake in that area is 37% off the coast of Oregon in the next 50 years.

Just last week, an earthquake early warning system was launched in Oregon, run by the US Geological Survey. As in California, the system sends alerts to smartphones. Washington state is expected to join the ShakeAlert system, which works on an array of seismic sensors, in May.

“When the Cascadia event occurs, the critical seconds of notification provided by ShakeAlert warnings will save lives and reduce damage to critical Lifeline systems,” said Oregon Governor Kate Brown last week, when the system was launched.

Lawmakers are also trying to prepare Oregon for a major earthquake.

In the legislature, House Bill 3083 stipulates that public works contracts must adhere to seismic safety standards and seismic rehabilitation standards in the construction or renovation of public buildings or vital infrastructure in earthquake-prone areas. A committee in the House of Representatives has a working session on April 1 scheduled for the bill.

Lindsay Baker, assistant director of the Oregon Department of Transportation, raised concerns about the bill, saying, “There is simply not enough funding to support the entire transportation system in a reasonable time frame.”

In 2020, the US Army Corps of Engineers completed a seismic hazard analysis of the Detroit Dam and found the risk to be higher than Corps officials had previously thought.

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“The structural analysis showed the possibility of bending sewer gates under the force of a full tank during a major earthquake,” the Corps said in its statement. “The stakes are high enough to warrant immediate action.”

A breakout will lead to a soaring waterfall that drops into the Santiam Canyon, destroyed by a forest fire last summer, and into where it opens up to the eastern edge of the Willamette Canyon.

“Because the Detroit Dam is located at the top of many communities including the capital of Salem, Oregon, there is the potential for devastating floods affecting large parts of the narrow Santiam River Valley and urban areas,” the Corps said in its draft environmental assessment.

The Corps said lowering the maximum level is a temporary solution to mitigate risks and will have little impact. The lake is used for recreation, and most boat ramps will be unusable for up to a month.

The Corps said it is continuing to assess the seismic performance of the drainage and other dam components to determine whether modifications or long-term changes to the operations are necessary. This includes the potential for major reconstruction to address earthquake risks.

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