Part of the San Andreas fault in Los Angeles may be overlooked by the Big One earthquake

The Carrizo Plain in the eastern province of San Luis Obispo contains the most striking graphic portion of … [+] San Andreas Fault.

GT

The San Andreas Fault is a system of fractures roughly 800 miles (more than 1,200 km) long that spans a large area of ​​California and is capable of producing earthquakes of magnitude 7+ that are powerful enough to cause widespread damage.

As the continental plates in the Pacific and North America move across each other, the Southern San Andreas Fault carries about half the stress from that movement, up to 25 mm (about 1 inch) per year. Ultimately, this strain is triggered by earthquakes.

However, not every bit of error holds this pressure evenly. In Southern California, the San Andreas Fault System consists of many smaller “strings”, and it is difficult for earthquake researchers to determine which parts of the fault system are most at risk of rupture.

Scientists have long believed that much of the sliding of the southern San Andreas Fault occurred along the Banning Strand and Garnet Hill. But a new study shows that a section called Mission Creek Strand is deforming over time and more, redistributing tectonic stress over a much larger area than previously thought – and that could be through the good news in Los Angeles.

System San Andreas crashes and other major crashes in California: Different parts of the error … [+] Display different behavior.

USGS

Kimberly Plisniuk, a seismologist at San Jose State University, went to search for evidence that earthquakes caused ground shapes to move across the surface. I found it in Pushawalla Canyon, a site along the thread of Mission Creek in the Little San Bernardino Mountains.

There, next to a ravine carved by water, I saw a series of three ancient “decapitated canals” – long depressions in the desert that once seemed to be part of the original valley before earthquakes pushed them aside.

Plesniuk walked the area to get a better look at these telltale signs of an old rupture. In each channel, she and her team dated eras of rock and soil.

The oldest canal, located about two kilometers (more than a mile) from the current valley, was roughly 80,000 to 95,000 years old. The second, 1.3 kilometers (less than a mile), was about 70,000 years old; The decapitated third canal, about 0.7 kilometers (less than half a mile) away, was about 25,000 years old.

Based on these three parameters, the researchers calculated that Mission Creek’s average slip rate was about 21.6 mm (less than an inch) per year. At this rate, they realized that it represented the majority of the pressure along the Southern San Andreas Fault. By contrast, they calculated that the Banning strand had an average slip of only 2.5 mm per year.

The 6 to 9 meter elastic strain likely has accumulated along the fault since the last major earthquake in the area about 295 years ago, the study showed – which means that when it does finally take off, the ground will likely have moved approximately 20 to 30 feet. .

The ShakeOut Earthquake scenario assumes a 7.8-magnitude “Big One” earthquake along the San Andreas River and struck the Greater Los Angeles area, killing more than 1,800 people, injuring 50,000, and wounding $ 200 billion in damage and other losses. New findings could change this scenario and make it less gloomy.

The Big One can only be launched by a massive rupture along a long stretch of the San Andreas Fault, something within 200 miles. If this rupture ends up traveling along the Banning Strip – as the ShakeOut model has assumed – then its east-west inclination will send energy to the San Bernardino Valley, San Gabriel Valley, and finally to the Los Angeles Basin. But if the rupture were to follow Mission Creek, its northwest direction would divert some of that energy away from the Los Angeles Basin, saving it some damage.

The exact moment when the earthquake will occur cannot be predicted, and how it will occur is still uncertain. Lucy Jones, a co-seismologist who has authored more than 300 other scientists on the ShakeOut scenario, said commenting on the new study.

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