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The risk of a massive earthquake remains high on the Japan Pacific side
The government said the probability of a strong earthquake over the next 30 years was still high on the Pacific side of Japan.
The seismic risk map for 2020, released by the State Seismological Research Commission on Friday, showed the odds of an earthquake of at least 6 magnitude, the third highest on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7.
The new map shows odds of at least 26% in the eastern part of Hokkaido, as well as the Pacific side of the Kant region, the Tokai region, and the Kinki and Shikoku regions.
Naoshi Hirata, chairman of the State Seismological Research Committee, speaks at a press conference ahead of the release of the 2020 Earthquake Hazard Map on March 19 at the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in Tokyo. | Kyodo
The results stem from a high probability of two major marine earthquakes over the next 30 years.
One is an earthquake of magnitude around 8 with a probability of 80% expected along the Chishima Trench off Nemuru, Hokkaido.
The other, which was seen along the Nankai Trough off the central coast to the southwest of the country with a force of 8 to 9, has a probability of 70% to 80%.
Several points on the map where the provincial capitals and Hokkaido county offices are located showed slight increases in the likelihood of the earthquake.
Among them, Mito, Ibaraki Prefecture, showed the highest probability 81%, unchanged from the previous map released in 2018.
The odds stood at 80% in Nemuro, up from 78%, unchanged at 75% in Kochi and 75% in Tokushima, up from 73%.
Due to recent geological and geological survey data and drilling data being reflected in the map, the odds decreased to 62% from 85% in Chiba and to 30% from 55% in Osaka.
The number dropped to 47% from 48% in Tokyo.
The release of the 2020 map has been postponed to 2021 as earthquake probability assessments along the Japan Trench and the Nankai Basin have been updated.
The Tohoku region is still witnessing aftershocks of the 11 March 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake in eastern Japan, which caused a fatal tsunami along the Pacific coast of the region.
Partly because of this, the probabilities of major earthquakes of at least 6 degrees over the next 30 years remain high at 26% or higher along the Pacific coast in Miyagi and Fukushima prefectures.
Shizuoka and Yamanashi prefectures as well as the eastern part of Nagano Prefecture have shown lower probabilities due to the updated earthquake assessments, although they are still at high levels.
“We want people to check their homes, schools and workplaces on the map and take steps like earthquake-resistant furniture,” said Noshi Hirata, chair of the committee.
The Japanese version of the map can be accessed on the Government Headquarters website to promote earthquake research.
Site visitors can choose a location and see the likelihood of an earthquake as well as its vulnerability to earthquake on the National Research Institute of Earth Sciences and Disaster Resistance online J-SHIS hazard map.
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