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SunLive – landslides on Raul Island from recent earthquakes

SunLive – landslides on Raul Island from recent earthquakes

 


More than 300 new landslides were discovered on Raul Island in the aftermath of the M8.1 earthquake, which triggered tsunami warnings in the Bay of Plenty earlier this month.

GNS Science says that the landscape of Raul Island is dominated by the steep forested cliffs of the Raul Caldera volcanic and rugged coastal cliffs.

“The ground shaken by the M8.1 earthquake on March 5 was estimated to be between 0.15 grams and 0.75 grams (from ShakeMap NZ) causing more than 300 landslides, which our team drew on the map,” according to a statement on their website .

“ The mapping was performed using images of Raul Island taken by GeoNet and NZDF teams who visited the island after the earthquake as well as a 0.5m image captured by the Pleiades satellite on March 9th.

The Pleiades satellite image was captured on March 9, 2021 with the mapped landslide distribution on the map.

“A set of pre-earthquake imagery (Google and Sentinel) was used to confirm that the landslides were caused by the earthquake (ie were not present prior to the earthquake).

The most spectacular landslides were around the Blue Lagoon, and along the rugged coast, says GNS Science.

There was a great slide at Pills Beach, as about 400 meters of coastal cliffs collapsed, leaving a column of sediment in the ocean.

Most of the landslides were relatively small (100-200 cubic meters) of avalanches, soil and avalanches, but there were some larger avalanches of about 20,000 cubic meters (think of two rugby fields deep in the rocks).

“The largest landslides were on the northeastern coast near Hutchison Bluff, and around the Blue Lake crater, most of the landslides were collapses and falls of rocks and soil.”

Landslides caused the crater rim of the blue lake.

“Before field teams depart for Raul Island, we turned on the Earthquake Landslide Predictor (EQIL Tool) (Massey et al 2020) to give them an indication of where to look for landslides and provide information on potential safety risks.

“EQIL predicts where landslides are likely to occur in light of earthquake shaking (PGA) and topographic and geological controls over where landslides will occur (distance from fault, slope, geology, elevation, vegetation, side, etc.).”

Results from the instrument (using a PGA of 0.4 g) are shown in the image below, with the mapped ground slip distribution superimposed.

The landslide probability of an M8.1 earthquake is estimated by assuming a PGA of 0.4 g, across the entire island.

Areas of red and orange have a high likelihood of earthquake-induced landslides.

A visual comparison of the prediction model results with the mapped landslide distribution indicates an overall good correlation, says GNS Science.

Coastal slopes generally have a high likelihood of simulating landslides, and most of the landslides that have been mapped have occurred on these slopes.

This is because they are generally steeper at the angle and higher in local cliff topography. Some of the larger landslides have occurred at the crater rim, which again corresponds to areas of high likelihood of a landslide.

“Quantification of the model’s accuracy in predicting landslide occurrence is ongoing.”

Cliff collapse along Bills Beach, North Coast.

Coastal landslides near Raynor Point.

– Chris Massey, Brenda Rosser and Billiana Lukovic. GNS Science.

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