Seasonal water cycle fluctuations may trigger earthquakes in Taiwan

A new study identified a strong relationship between changes in the rate of earthquakes in Taiwan and the fluctuations of the seasonal water cycle, indicating that many faults in this region are so tense that even minor shifts in stress caused by changes in groundwater storage can trigger earthquakes. Ya-Ju Hsu and colleagues note that the rate of earthquakes in western Taiwan is at its highest between February and April, when the crust bounces as the pressure decreases from carrying groundwater, and its seismicity reaches its lowest levels between July and September, at the end of the tail. Monsoon season. However, the researchers also note that shallow earthquakes in eastern Taiwan show an inverse correlation as the loading from the stored water is mitigated, a phenomenon the authors suggest may be explained by another, yet to be determined, time-dependent process. While previous research has shown that earthquakes may fluctuate seasonally due to the variable presence of water in regions of tectonic activity, it has remained difficult to isolate how different physical factors contribute to inducing earthquakes. To further this research, Hsu et al. They measured the relationship between seasonal fluctuations in the water cycle and earthquakes in western and eastern Taiwan, which they chose because of frequent and devastating earthquakes, wide fluctuations in precipitation and groundwater storage due to monsoons and typhoons that struck the island from May to September. The researchers analyzed seismic data from 2002 to 2018, continuous groundwater measurements from 40 monitoring stations during the same period, and GNSS time-series data on seasonal water storage variation. They found that shallow earthquakes occurred more frequently in late winter and early spring in western Taiwan, when water loads exert less pressure on the crust, while a more complex pattern appeared in eastern Taiwan, with a peak rate of earthquakes occurring in winter or summer. Additionally, Hsu et al. It studied the seasons between 1604 and 2018, when 63 seismic events of magnitude 6 or more occurred, and revealed historical trends in peak earthquakes similar to those observed at present. The authors say these findings provide insights that may help improve regional risk assessments.

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