A study that sheds light on how the Earth organizes earthquakes

An international group of researchers has uncovered new details about one of the “earthquake gates” in nature while studying the New Zealand Alpine Rift, according to a new study published in Nature Geoscience.

“An earthquake gate is like someone directing traffic into a one-lane construction area. Sometimes you stop and you get a green” STOP “sign, and other times you have a red” STOP “sign until conditions change,” a geologist at the University of California, Riverside Nicholas Barth explained in a press release.

The Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) recently made earthquake gates a high research priority as they can help shed light on future earthquake behaviors.

In the new study, researchers concluded that the gateway has an approximately 75% chance of creating a devastating earthquake within 50 years. Their models also indicate that the probability of the next earthquake is approximately 82 percent 8 or greater.

By combining findings from previous earthquake evidence with computer simulations run by geophysicists, the researchers are revealing new findings about the expected behavior of future earthquakes in the Alpine Rift.

Lead author Jimmy Howarth, a geologist at Victoria University of Wellington, said, “Large earthquakes cause dangerous shaking and landslides that carry debris down rivers and in lakes.” By dating the sediments, we can accurately determine when an earthquake occurred. “

100,000 Years of Computer Simulated Earthquakes

The researchers compared data for the 20 most important earthquakes that occurred over the past 4,000 years with a 100,000-year record of computer-generated earthquakes.

“The simulations show that a 6 to 7 magnitude earthquake at the earthquake gate can change the pressure and break the chain of larger earthquakes,” Bart said. “We know that the last three ruptures have passed through the earthquake gate. In our best model, the next earthquake will also pass 82% of the time.”

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been a great boon to the field of geophysics in recent times, as it has allowed advanced models to help predict future behaviors of the Earth. For example, the world’s fastest computer, Fugaku, is currently being used to predict tsunami patterns in Japan after earthquakes. Meanwhile, Stanford researchers are developing artificial intelligence for accurate, real-time seismic readings.

Research focusing on earthquake gates has the potential to allow increasingly detailed forecasts and predictions of earthquakes. Not only will these allow us to gain insight into the period when an earthquake might be occurring, but also the strength of the next earthquake.

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