Major facilities may be prepared as much as possible for an Alpine earthquake, but heavy damage should be expected

The transportation agency said some major roads can be shut down for months when there is a major earthquake in the Alpine fault.

But the phone and power companies appear to be hoping for a quick recovery.

Scientists led by Victoria University last week raised their estimates of the bug that has been tearing dramatically within the next 47 years, and now estimate the chances at 75 percent instead of 30 percent.

The researchers speculated that there was a high chance that the next rupture would trigger an earthquake of at least magnitude 8.

Read more: * The high risk of an earthquake in the Alps highlights the need for preparation on the West Coast * The risk of a major earthquake of 75% by 2068: What is the cost? * The risk of an earthquake in the Alps is higher than experts think. * Questions about the future of SH6 on the West Coast if an earthquake strikes the Alps

The Treasury has not made any estimates specifically of the potential cost of an earthquake in the Alpine region, but the new research is expected to lead to new economic studies.

Pete Connors, West Coast Transportation Agency System Manager and Canterbury, said he regularly meets with South Island councils and emergency responders through a group known as the AF8 to prepare for an earthquake of this scale on the fault.

Supplied / GNS

New research indicates a 75 percent chance of a major earthquake by 2068 due to an alpine collapse.

“It is difficult to make accurate predictions of the effects of the Alpine Rift earthquake on transport networks, because there are so many potential variables,” he said.

“One mistake can lead to others, and new ones can be detected, as was the case for Kaikura.”

But the statewide Highway 6 between Haast and Westport and the SH73 that runs through Arthur’s Pass were the two highways likely to be severely affected after a rupture, he said.

He said roads can be impassable for months at a time.

There has been speculation that the SH6 may be impossible to salvage.

The agency believed that SH7, despite Lewis Bass, would reopen faster than Arthur’s Corridor and that might be a priority after the next earthquake “to reconnect the lines of life to the West Coast and Bowler.”

The agency stored the parts in Christchurch to assemble “Bailey bridges” that could be used as temporary crossings.

Bailey bridges were developed by the British Army during World War II.

Things

Bailey bridges can be a quick option to restore access if road bridges are damaged, but the transportation agency warns of the risks that could flow from an earthquake in the Alps should not be underestimated.

Connors said the risks posed by rockslides, major slides, and river floor collapses “should not be underestimated” with the potential for rivers to be blocked and diverted.

“Bridges, which tend to be at narrow river and creek crossing points, are particularly vulnerable in this scenario.”

Meridian Energy said a 10-year study by engineering firm URS and GNS gave it confidence that its hydropower plans can withstand severe seismic events without “an uncontrolled release of water.”

But she expected electricity generation to be reduced because it fixed any damage.

Transpower director Jeff Wechart said he designed key equipment on the national network for the extreme “one in 2,500 years” event, and reviewed the potential impact of the Alpine earthquake.

Kelvin Jobson

Meridian Energy is confident its dams will retain water when the alpine fault bursts, but says there may be some interruptions in generation.

“Of course there will be some local effects, such as broken lines, that may need repair.

“But the transmission lines in general can be repaired in a reasonable time,” he said.

“We understand that the main generating stations for the South Island will be in compliance with our design standards, and provided they are ready and available, we envision that the main South Island network can be operational at a reasonable speed,” he said.

Tony Bird, Vodafone’s Infrastructure Manager, said the company would do its best to continue covering customers if a natural disaster strikes.

“We have a number of backups, such as the fiber paths that run on both sides of the country, and two undersea cables between the northern and southern islands, in addition to both fixed and mobile networks to provide different types of access, with satellite technology in extreme conditions.”

He said telecom companies have a proven track record of working well together after disasters.

“We share our networks mutually when needed. For example, during the Kaikoura earthquake, Spark and the Vodafone Choir used Kaikoura fibers after cutting other fibers in town.”

The West Coast faced “unique infrastructure challenges,” but the new fiber line being built from Kors will greatly improve communications in this part of New Zealand, he said.

Spark spokeswoman Althea Lovell said she is not currently planning to specifically increase the risk of a major earthquake in the Alpine earthquake, but has built its networks to be resilient.

“Although we cannot plan each scenario separately, risks such as earthquakes and their impacts on our infrastructure are assessed regularly,” she said.

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