Predicting earthquakes a few weeks ago is a nice introduction, but we haven’t arrived yet

Heavy damage caused by an earthquake. Credit: Sunyu Kim at Unsplash – unsplash.com/@mauveine

For major earthquakes, satellite forecasts work. They give us enough warning, for example, so we can safely stop the surgery before shaking begins. A few seconds are critical in some situations. But predicting a major earthquake a week or more requires something more. A research group in Greece is working on discovering changes in the Earth’s electrical environment, and hopes to make progress. What is interesting is that the changes it purports to discover occur in the correct time period – about ten days before sometimes – to be beneficial. A recent update to their method led me to take a fresh look at their work.

Unfortunately, the hypothesis is better than real. While the VAN method (named for professors Varotsos, Alexopoulos and Nomicos) is sensitive to changes in the Earth’s electrical field before earthquakes, it also produces an abundance of false positives. But not all is lost. Their method indicates additional phenomena that may only help unlock the earthquake initiation puzzle. This is my conclusion, which is now published in the May 2020 issue of the journal Physics of Earth and Indoor Planets.

Scientists recently searched for an explanation of how groundwater changes relate to earthquakes. Not all earthquakes see a rise in well water in advance, but some definitely do. The timing corresponds to the timing of the seismic electrical signals that the VAN Group is aiming to study. But the mechanism of how this water rises, and then falls after it, is not well understood. The last article summarizes the process and suggests that changes in minerals in surrounding rocks release water from the minerals themselves. This is then incorporated into new minerals after earthquakes occur, thereby reducing the level of well water after the event, and this corresponds to observation data. The water flow can also lead to the production of the alleged electrical signals at the observed strengths. Other groups, notably some researchers in Iceland, have worked hard to identify minerals before and after at least one case. Potential mechanism appears.

But there is another complication. The changes in the ionosphere, as they sometimes happen during solar weather, are related to about half of the large earthquakes that occur. It is not really feasible for ground operations to affect the ionosphere to match changes, but they may work in the opposite direction. The ionosphere may have a role to play in weakening ground rocks by affecting the geomagnetic field. It is still too early to say whether this will be a useful path for earthquake prediction, but with machine learning emerging, there may be an opportunity to explore some of these links further. “How do I write electricity and magnetism that can affect crystal lattices to release volatile matter from minerals, and whether this release can weaken rocks enough to support the hypothesis of the electromagnetic earthquake are open questions,” I write at the end of the article. I plan to do additional tests of this approach via machine learning with various seismic and ground data. Soon, we may be able to have a very good warning system that allows more than a week’s notice, which is a significant improvement in public safety.

This story is part of the Science X Dialog, where researchers can report results from their published research articles. Visit this page for information about the ScienceX dialog and how to share.

more information:
Daniel S. Hellman. Electrical Seismic Signals (SES) and Seismology: A Review of Updated VAN Method and Competing Assumptions for SES Generation and Seismic Induction, Earth and Indoor Planetary Physics (2020). Doi: 10.1016 / j.pepi.2020.106484

Margarita Andrin et al. Coupling between mineral reactions, chemical changes in groundwater, and earthquakes in Iceland, Geophysical Research Journal: Solid Earth (2016). Doi: 10.1002 / 2015jb012614

Biography: Daniel Hellman is a teacher at Micronesia-FSM College in Yap, a small island in the Pacific Ocean. His research includes geophysical topics related to earth electricity and alternative energy, as well as work related to education and society. Follow Hellman on Twitter: https://twitter.com/HelmanDaniel

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