“ We cannot predict earthquakes, but we can become resilient to them. ”

Last month, Coronavirus wasn’t the only big news out of Assam and other northeastern states. A few days ago we witnessed a strong earthquake that shook everyone and everything. The Northeast region is not strange to earthquakes, but can we learn more about this phenomenon? What makes this region vulnerable to earthquakes? What can we do to protect ourselves? Is there a way to predict earthquakes? EastMojo spoke with Soumitra Dasgupta, Geologist, Geological Survey of India to understand more about the issue.

Would it be safe to say that northeast India is the most vulnerable to frequent earthquakes?

The short answer is yes. All of the northeast, not just Assam, is located under the seismic zone V, making it highly vulnerable to frequent and frequent earthquakes. Tectonic composition makes it a high seismic zone.

We recently experienced a measurement of more than 6 on the Richter scale but luckily the damage is nowhere near catastrophic. What explains this phenomenon?

Photos of the damage to buildings in Guwahati and a few other places showed that although there was some damage, it was neither extensive nor significant. However, this is what our eyes saw. Right after the earthquake, our team of experts went to the state of Assam and started gathering information and field data: visual and those that needed measurements. As of now, work is in progress. The Richter scale is nothing but a measure of the strength of an earthquake. Diluting properties of soil and rocks. The possibility of liquefaction and so on all contribute to the damage of an earthquake. Was it a strong earthquake? Yeah. Does this mean that future earthquakes of similar magnitude will not cause much damage? No. Every earthquake is different, and the last earthquake in Assam was no different.

Experts have spoken about the Koppeli Fault in light of the recent earthquakes. Can you explain the concept and why it remains a strange phenomenon to experts? Do we have similar examples of the Kubili Fracture in other parts of India or the world?

The Copili Fracture is a unique tectonic feature that is considered to be an important active fault in the northeastern region. It was measured that the Indian plate moves on average about 5 cm per year in the northeast direction. This results in an oblique collision between the Indo-Eurasian plaques in the northeastern region. However, along the length of the collision regions, the rate of convergence may not be uniform due to a number of factors such as fluorescence properties, local structural inhomogeneity etc. The differential convergence ratio may be attributed to the slip fault configuration or to have the presence activated. Kopili is one of these errors. As it is an active fault in one of the most seismically active areas in the country, it is of course of utmost importance to us geologists.

Regarding what we want to learn from it, we primarily want to understand the nature of this fault, the level of danger it poses, its seismic nature, etc. And of course, as researchers, it is necessary to perform – observations of the extent of error. You see, the earthquake is a few seconds long, but this is what normal people feel and see. We never stop studying these phenomena.

Even though we are in a seismic zone, there appears to be little on the part of the government regarding planning urban spaces with this in mind. How, in your opinion, should a city, state, or region adapt to ensure that the seismic threat is well interpreted and real?

I do not agree with the first part of the question. As early as 2005, the Disaster Management Act was enacted that led to the formation of the National Disaster Management Authority. There are many awareness campaigns run by the government and they are still doing so at all levels. The Bureau of Indian Standards developed the Building Code for Earthquake Resistant Design. Implementing these laws, yes, one might argue with it but I am not the best person to talk about / oppose to it. My suggestion is this: If you are building in a seismic V zone it is absolutely essential to ensure your structures are earthquake-proof. Sure, it will cost more to build, but it will still stand. People need to understand what is at stake here. Awareness is a 24 * 7/365 affair, not just a workshop or online session.

Over the past decade, there has been a major focus on building massive dams in the northeast. As a geologist, how safe do you think are these dams in the event of a major earthquake? What kind of potential damage could happen if things got worse?

I don’t work on dams, we have a separate section: the engineering geology department that evaluates every project in the face of earthquake risk. They carry out geotechnical investigation of feasibility studies, pre-construction investigations and detailed investigations as well as construction phase investigations.

Is it dangerous to construct huge dams in seismic zones V? Yes, if you are not earthquake resistant! Is there a way to protect them from even the strongest earthquakes or at least limit the damage? Definitely. Dams can be built in a way to withstand the impact of an earthquake.

There is no way to predict an earthquake, yes. But in what ways can we improve our “shield” if there is an earthquake?

This is a good question. My experience has shown that we have come a long way in creating awareness. However, you see, an earthquake will always be sudden: no matter how much you prepare, what if you had a cup of coffee on the roof? You will run whatever your training is. Building awareness is the first stage, and now we must look to building resilience. Japan is a great example of simulation.

Finally, was there any study seeking to clarify whether climate change has an impact on earthquakes? I ask this because climate change is linked to the occurrence of hurricanes, storms and floods. But could one say the same about earthquakes?

At present, there is no clear correlation that indicates climate change is linked to earthquakes.

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