A new study highlights the dangers of the largest volcano on Earth

Image: Mauna Loa is 9 kilometers from the seabed to the summit, and is the largest volcano on Earth. Show more

Credit: USGS

MIAMI – Scientists from the Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Miami (UM) analyzed ground motions measured by InSAR satellite data and GPS stations to accurately model where magma entered and how magma flow changed over time as well as where faults moved beneath Flanks without generating major earthquakes. The GPS network is operated by the US Geological Survey’s Hawaii Volcano Observatory.

“An earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater would reduce the pressure created by the flow of magma along a semi-horizontal fault below the western side of the volcano,” said Bhuvan Farogo, Ph.D. Candidate at UM Rosenstiel and lead author of the study. “This earthquake could trigger an explosion.”

The researchers found that during the 2014-2020 period, a total of 0.11 cubic kilometers of new magma intruded into a dam-like body of magma located below and south of the caldera summit, with the top edge 2.5-3 kilometers below the summit. They were able to determine that in 2015 magma began to expand further south, where the topographic elevation is lower and that magma has less work to do against the topographic pressure. After magma flow diminished in 2017, the center of inflation reverted to its previous horizontal position from 2014-2015. No such changes have been observed in the magma body before.

“In Mauna Loa, flank movement and eruptions are linked in nature,” Farogo said. “The flow of new magma began in 2014 after more than four years of movement towards the sea to the eastern flank – creating space in the rift zone for magma intrusion.”

The researchers also found that there was movement unrelated to an earthquake along a semi-horizontal fault below the eastern flank, however, no movement was detected under the western flank. This led researchers to conclude that an earthquake had occurred under the West Wing. Movements along semi-horizontal faults under the wings are essential for long-term volcano growth.

Will the volcano erupt in the near future? “If magma continues to flow it is likely, but not required,” says Farogo. “The topographic load is very heavy, and magma can also diffuse sideways across the fault zone.”

“The earthquake could be a game changer,” said Falk Amelung, a professor in the Department of Marine Geosciences at UM Rosenstiel and the lead author of the study. “It will release gases from magma similar to shaking a soda bottle, which creates additional pressure and buoyancy, which is sufficient to break the rocks above the magma.”

According to the researchers, there are many doubts. Although the pressure applied along the fault is known, the magnitude of the earthquake will also depend on the size of the fault patch that will actually rupture. Additionally, there is no satellite data available to determine movements prior to 2002.

“It’s a wonderful problem,” said Amelong. “We can explain how and why the magma body has changed over the past six years.

Mauna Loa, standing 9 kilometers from the seafloor to the summit, is the largest volcano on Earth. In the eruption of the volcano in 1950, it only took three hours for the lava to reach the Kona coast. Such rapid flows would leave little time for people to evacuate in the lava path. Another major eruption occurred at Mauna Loa in 1984.

The combination of earthquakes and eruptions is nothing out of the ordinary. The eruption of the volcano in 1950 was preceded by a 6.3-magnitude earthquake three days earlier, and was followed by a 6.9-magnitude earthquake more than a year later. The eruption of the volcano in 1984 was preceded by a magnitude 6.6 earthquake 5 months earlier.

Satellite data was obtained by the Italian Cosmo-Skymed satellite under the Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories (GSNL) initiative of the Earth Observation Group (GEO), an international umbrella organization to promote the use of Earth observation for societal benefits. Several space agencies are pooling their satellite resources to enable new studies of dangerous volcanoes. Other giant volcanoes include Icelandic, Ecuadorian, and New Zealand volcanoes, as well as Mount Italy. Etna.

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The study, “The Growth Southward of the Mauna Loa Dam? Like a Magma Body Driven by Topographical Stress” was published in May 2021 in Nature Scientific Reports. Funding was provided through a NASA Research Grant # NNX15AQ20G to the University of Hawaii and the University of Miami Rosenstiel College of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences.

About Rosenstiel School of the University of Miami:

The University of Miami is one of the largest private research institutions in the southeastern United States. The university’s mission is to provide quality education, attract and retain high-achieving students, support faculty and their research, and build scholarship for the university’s initiatives. Founded in the 1940s, the Rosenstiel School of Marine & Atmospheric Science has become one of the world’s leading marine and air research institutions. Rosenstiel School offers dynamic, interdisciplinary academics and is dedicated to helping societies better understand the planet, participate in environmental policymaking, and help improve society and the quality of life. For more information visit: http://www.rsmas.miami.edu and TwitterUMiamiRSMAS

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