Volcano watch: Bao or paused? What is the difference?

Lava lake Halema’uma’u celebrated its 5-month anniversary by doing what we all love to do on our special day, by taking a break. Hawaii Volcanoes National Park suggested that the Kilauea summit eruption was preparing for a “luana ike” or a little rest, a more poetic way of describing a halt in volcanic activity.

What causes a volcano to erupt? Downtime occurs due to an interruption of the supply of magma to the site of the explosion or vault. Now, how do we know that the eruption has paused? Well, that’s a deceptively simple question with a surprisingly complex answer in this situation.

Molten lava is glowing red and is generally easy to spur from the vault, especially at night. Likewise, it is generally easy to know when to stop. However, in the case of a lava lake, the opening that feeds the lava eventually peels off and the lava is no longer visible.

The best way to find out if the lava is still filling the crater (without being able to see the lava) is to see if the level of lava in the lake continues to rise. The hole is a normal measuring cup, except that it is very oddly shaped and has no markings for use in measuring volume. We measure the distance to the surface of the lava lake using the tools of a laser rangefinder and then apply some algebra, trigonometry, and a computer to find the depth, volume and rate of the lava supply to the lava lake.

The amount of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) emitted from the vent is directly related to the amount of lava that erupted. The lava volume erupted, about 8 million cubic meters or 10 million cubic yards per day, and the sulfur dioxide release, 40,000 tons per day, was very high at the start of the eruption. These decreased dramatically over the course of the eruption to about 70,000 cubic meters or 90,000 cubic yards of lava per day and less than 1,000 tons of sulfur dioxide per day by early to mid-April.

Eruption rates and sulfur dioxide emissions fell sharply after April 16, coinciding with the lava level in the lake reaching the vault level. This relationship indicates that the gas-separated cold lava inside the lake essentially submerged the vent.

This period also saw a decrease in seismic tremor associated with movement of magma and gas discharge within the dam that feeds the hole. In addition, the weak pattern of inflation associated with an increase in earthquakes below the Kilauea caldera indicates that the magma has shifted to accumulating in depth rather than rising to the surface.

Finally, the top of the lava lake crusted off as the lava supply dwindled and ceased, with the last surface activity seen on May 23. Therefore, without being able to tell whether new lava was directly entering the lake, HVO scientists used measurements of the depth of the lava lake to infer that the lava supply had stopped and that the eruption had “paused”.

Many eruptions undergo short pauses and then resume activity within the same vents. There were several pauses followed by resumption of activity during the Pu’u’O’o volcano eruption, and several have also been recorded in the past including during the Maunaulu, Kilauea Iki and 1955 eruptions in the Lower East Rift Zone.

So, how do we know if the eruption of Halema’uma’u 2020-21 is paused or not? Statistically, most eruptions resume within 3 months after pausing. For now, we can only watch and wait to see if the activity will return to the venting system itself and end the pause. Alternatively, if the eruption is indeed pau, we may enter a period of dormancy before the next Kilauea eruption.

Volcano activity updates

Kilauea volcano does not erupt. USGS Volcano Alert Level in ADVISORY (https://www.usgs.gov/natural-hazards/volcano-hazards/about-alert-levels). Kilauea updates are released weekly.

The lava supply to Halema’uma’u lava lake has stopped and sulfur dioxide emissions have decreased to nearly pre-eruption background levels. The seismic tremor, which continued during the eruption, has weakened significantly but still indicates some shallow magma activity. HVO continues to closely monitor earthquakes, deformation, and gas emissions at Kilauea, and maintain visual monitoring of the summit and the eastern rift area for signs of renewed activity. There are currently no indications that a resumption of volcanic activity is imminent. Kilauea is still an active volcano and future volcanic eruptions can occur at the summit or anywhere else on the volcano. For more information on the current monitoring of Kilauea volcano, see https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/Kilauea/monitoring.

Mauna Loa does not erupt and is still at Volcano Alert Level. This alert level does not imply that a volcano eruption is imminent or that progression to an eruption from the current level of turbulence is a certainty. Mauna Loa updates are released weekly.

Last week, around 39 small-scale earthquakes were recorded below Mauna Loa; Most of them occurred below the summit and at higher elevations at depths of less than 8 km (about 5 miles). GPS measurements show low rates of distortion at the summit region over the past week. Gas concentrations and fumarol temperatures both at the summit and in the sulfur cone in the southwest rift region remain stable. Web cameras do not show any changes to the landscape. For more information on the current monitoring of Mauna Loa volcano, see: https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/mauna-loa/monitoring.

There were 5 events with 3 or more hair reports in the Hawaiian Islands during the past week: the M2.9 19 km (11 mi) earthquake east of Kalloa at a depth of 21 km (13 mi) on May 26 at 12:36 PM HST, the M4 earthquake .2 15 km (9 mi) south of Volcano at a depth of 7 km (4 mi) on May 23 at 11:40 a.m. HST, M3.4 earthquake 15 km (9 mi) south of Volcano 7 km (4 mi) Depth on May 23 at 9:38 a.m. HST, M3.6 earthquake 15 km (9 mi) south of Volcano at a depth of 8 km (5 mi) on May 23 at 8:36 a.m. HST, the M2.4 earthquake at a distance of 2 Km (1 mi) WSW from Boaco at a depth of 10 km (6 mi) on May 22 at 10:43 AM GMT.

HVO continues to closely monitor Kilauea and Mauna Loa for any signs of increased activity.

Please visit the HVO website for previous Volcano Watch articles, Kilauea and Mauna Loa updates, volcano photos, maps, recent earthquake information, and more. Questions emailed to [email protected].

Volcano Watch is a weekly article and activity update written by the scientists and affiliates of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory of the US Geological Survey.

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