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Bureau of Meteorology warns of dual La Nia flooding forecast for Australia | Weather in Australia




Australia needs to prepare for floods this stormy season with the Bureau of Meteorology (Bom) predicting it has double the chance of forming a La Nia.

La Nia events increase the chances of rainfall above the average of northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer. Climatologist Bom Tamika Tihema says the office has predicted it has twice the chance of La Nia being formed after updates to its current modeling.

This does not guarantee that a La Nia will happen, but that there is about a 50% chance that La Nia will be formed. This means that roughly half of the climate models used by the office suggest that an event in La Nia is likely to take place, she says.

Tihema says the chance of La Nia being affected by severe weather, with rainfall higher than the average forecast for the two eastern thirds of the country for the rest of the year, has increased the risk of flooding.

For many areas, including parts of East New South Wales, East Victoria, northern Tasmania and southwestern Australia and northern Australia, soil moisture is wetter than average, she said. Since this means more rain on wetlands, there is an increased risk of flooding in these areas.

Tihema said the increased chance for La Nia was partly attributed to sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean which have cooled over the past two months.

We are seeing changes in both observations and views of climate models that show an increased chance of La Nia in the coming months, she said.

The chances of exceeding average rainfall are greater than 70% for most of the two eastern thirds of the country for the rest of 2021.

The chances of average rainfall for the period November to January are around 60% or more for the two eastern thirds of Australia.

NSW SES Commissioner Carlene York said the storm season which traditionally lasts from October to March is likely to bring conditions similar to last year, including heavy rainfall and the risk of river flooding.

During the previous storm season, we experienced major flooding across the state, York said.

Not long ago our volunteers responded to the great flood event that flooded communities across Hawkesbury-Nepean, Hunter and the mid-north coast. That event alone saw us respond to more than 14,000 requests for help, including more than 1,000 flood rescues.

Communities It is extremely important that communities make sure they are ready. Storms can occur at any time. The more you can do now to prepare, the less likely you are to need urgent help from our volunteers when these weather events strike.

York said safe practices for Covid were implemented to respond to blockages and ongoing health measures.

Bom says that while El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a natural part of the climate system, climate change continues to have an impact on changing weather patterns. Australia has warmed by 1.44 degrees Celsius since recordings began in 1910.

South Australia has seen a decrease in rainfall between 10 and 20% during its cold season in recent decades, while rainfall in Northern Australia during its wet season has increased since the 1990s, with short and heavy rainfall. rains that become more frequent.

Research suggests that El Nio may bring more rainfall over the central and eastern Pacific Ocean under global warming, and La Nia rainfall may be heavier in the western Pacific and over the southern Pacific, but what these changes mean for Australia is unclear, said Tihema.

Research also suggests that there may be an increase in the frequency of major El Nio and La Nia events. What the future holds for El Nio, La Nia and their influences are the subject of current research.




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