Australia needs to prepare for floods this stormy season with the Bureau of Meteorology (Bom) predicting it has double the chance of forming a La Nia.
La Nia events increase the chances of rainfall above the average of northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer. Climatologist Bom Tamika Tihema says the office has predicted it has twice the chance of La Nia being formed after updates to its current modeling.
This does not guarantee that a La Nia will happen, but that there is about a 50% chance that La Nia will be formed. This means that roughly half of the climate models used by the office suggest that an event in La Nia is likely to take place, she says.
Tihema says the chance of La Nia being affected by severe weather, with rainfall higher than the average forecast for the two eastern thirds of the country for the rest of the year, has increased the risk of flooding.
For many areas, including parts of East New South Wales, East Victoria, northern Tasmania and southwestern Australia and northern Australia, soil moisture is wetter than average, she said. Since this means more rain on wetlands, there is an increased risk of flooding in these areas.
Tihema said the increased chance for La Nia was partly attributed to sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific Ocean which have cooled over the past two months.
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