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The conservative Canadian leader tested the left shift against Trudeau. Will the new course stay?

 


His strategic relocation included a climate plan, with a price for carbon and a different tone for LGBTQ2 issues.

I told the Conservatives that our party needed the courage to change because Canada has changed, OToole said early Tuesday morning in his concession speech. We have demonstrated to Canadians that we are on the path to involving more Canadians in our conservative movement.

Results so far: With votes still counting on Tuesday, the Conservatives appear to have won 119 seats in Monday’s election. The party took 121 seats in 2019 under OTooles predecessor Andrew Scheer.

As in 2019, the Conservatives are ready to win the popular vote in Canada’s electoral system first, even though they will end up behind the Liberals in the number of seats.

The conservative result was also enough to keep the Liberals from achieving their primary goal of regaining the majority mandate they lost in 2019.

The complexity of individual voting decisions supports each election, but the Conservatives will study the data to determine how far OTooles left street helped him suddenly stand close to Trudeau. O’Toole has also announced that he has initiated a post-election review.

We will do a balance of what worked and what did not and will continue to decide in time by showing more Canadians that they are welcome in the Conservative Party, OToole said in the speech.

Above all, we must continue to tell Canadians that whether you are Black, White, Brown, or of any race or creed, LGBTQ, or righteous, Indigenous Canadian, or have come to Canada five weeks ago, or five generations ago you were an important part of Canada and have a seat in the Conservative Party.

High floor, low ceiling: OToole made a big bet by breaking away from its predecessors in the party’s core work by calling itself “pro-election,” an ally of the LGBTQ2 community and a conservative with a detailed climate plan.

Were they no longer the Conservative Party of your fathers, OToole said at a campaign halt late last week.

Some Conservative insiders have described the OTooles approach as a bold move for a party that relies on its basic support from the social conservatives.

The danger was that the campaign, which OToole called socially progressive, would draw too many votes to the fringes of the parties.

In Monday’s vote, Canada’s right-wing People’s Party, led by former Conservative cabinet minister Maxime Bernier, failed to win a seat. But the party increased its support and seemed to pull enough votes from OToole to weaken the conservative results.

Expansion of the voter group: Sean Speer, who was a policy adviser to former Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said that when it comes to voter support, the Conservatives have the highest floor among the major parties.

For example, Speer says the party’s loyal base means a leader can count on getting at least 26 percent of the vote in any given election.

On the other hand, he said the party also has the challenge of a relatively low ceiling with an approximate maximum, on a good day, of about 35 percent support.

How to raise the ceiling without falling off the floor has been a challenge that Mr. Toole and his team have rightly identified and sought to address, Speer, a senior fellow at Munk School Global Affairs & Public Policy, told POLITICO ahead of the results. of elections. it turned out Fairshtë right to say that they deserve credit for that.

He said that in 2019 the Conservatives stood by the well-dressed approach of mobilizing and galvanizing their base instead of trying to solve the low ceiling problem.

Speer said it is unclear whether the party can successfully expand its reach to a larger group of voters without having support elsewhere.

There is an open question whether there is some kind of structural problem built into the Conservative Party voter composition, he said.

Early results: A quick look at Monday’s results suggests voters may have followed OTooles’ shift.

The Conservatives seemed poised to double their climbing victories compared to 2019 with eight countries in more progressive Atlantic Canada, which was swept in by the Liberals in 2015.

But the Conservatives had a poorer score in Canada’s traditional conservative areas of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba. In Monday’s vote, 11 countries met other parties in the Prairie region, compared to just eight in 2019.

What to expect next: A big unknown is whether OToole will be able to keep its job as a leader.

His Conservatives beat low expectations at the start of the campaign, when polls suggested the Liberals were close to majority government territory. Unlike its globally recognized liberal rival, OToole was nowhere near a common name in Canada.

The Conservative leader said he wants to stay until the next election.

“We are building towards victory next time,” he told a news conference Tuesday afternoon. “I have already started a post-election review to look at what went well, what went wrong and what we can do better.”

But without a major improvement or even a drop in the number of party seats, he can fight to do so. O’Toole will also have to answer for the deviation to the left.

He faced numerous questions from reporters on Tuesday about his future as a leader.

O’Toole highlighted some of Monday’s gains, including the party that took first place in Newfoundland and Labrador in eight years.

“I am clearly disappointed, all our members are disappointed that it is the status quo,” O’Toole said as he sidestepped the question of whether he would push for a leadership review. “I am very, very proud of the gains we have made, but we have not come that far. We will do it next time.”

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