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Explanator: Barnaby Joyce is right, the UK is in an energy crisis, but is it important to Australia? | POWER

 


As we await the final signal from the Morrison government whether it can change its position by preferring to achieve zero emissions by 2050 in union with the 129 countries that have set a current target, it is worth considering the language of a central man he decision: Deputy Prime Minister.

In recent days, Barnaby Joyce told reporters he was confused that Australia was not spending more time discussing the UK situation, as, in his words, it had completely depleted energy and had to go back and restart factories of coal in keep the lights on.

It was, Joyce suggested, a cautionary tale of what could go wrong in switching to zero emissions. After all, he said, the story can be trusted because he had read it in the Guardian, and it was not just a right-wing speechwith So what is happening to energy in the UK and is it relevant to the situation in Australia?

Is there an energy crisis in the UK?

In one headline, Joyce is right that a real energy crisis is unfolding in Britain as northern winters approach. But the situation is more complicated than his passing references have implied.

The UK gets about 40% of its electricity from renewable sources, about 40% from fossil fuels and about 20% from nuclear. Wind energy has increased dramatically in recent years while coal has disappeared, providing only 2% of production last year. Electricity produced from gas has remained approximately stable at around 37%.

As Guardians Jillian Ambrose reported, the UK crisis is the result of a perfect storm of market forces, mainly affecting gas supplies. Gas prices have quadrupled over the past year and have risen by 70% in the past month alone.

There are fears that some power supplies could collapse, and an expectation of approximately 500,000 more people will be pushed into fuel poverty and forced to choose between heating their homes and other necessities such as food.

Why are prices so inflated?

Basically because there is not enough affordable gas available.

In recent years, as North Sea reserves have dwindled, Britain has relied on imported gas. Right now, it’s hard to get at a good price.

Some countries, at least China have made a faster economic recovery from Covid-19 than expected, and have significantly increased energy use. Meanwhile, gas depots in Europe have depleted following a particularly cold 2020-21 winter, and Russia has refused to increase its gas flow to the west above the minimum required to fulfill its contracts.

This has hit most of Europe, but the UK has been particularly hard hit. The problem has been exacerbated by a number of unrelated power supply problems, including the main connection of power cables to France due to a fire, some old closed nuclear power plants for unplanned maintenance and the production of wind that blows during the summer. less windy in 60. years.

With the exception of historically low wind supply, none of the problems are related to climate change policy. But as Joyce noted, the result has been that British authorities use temporary fires of dormant coal-fired power plants to fill the breach.

Could this happen in Australia?

No system is immune to unforeseen calamities, but it seems impossible. The problems faced by the UK energy system generally do not apply here.

As a start, gas plays a much smaller role in the electricity grid. Eastern States of Australia still receive more than 60% of electricity from coal, almost a third from renewable sources and only 6% from gas.

Regulators are planning for a future in which coal will be overwhelmingly replaced by solar and wind energy, with available resources, pumped hydric batteries, demand management programs and, for at least some time, gas being used to fill in the gaps. While the Morrison government still talks about gas as a transition fuel and has promised a pandemic-led gas recovery, including pledging more than $ 600 million in public funding for a new publicly owned gas plant, official forecasts suggest that reliance on gas production will not increase.

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Australia is also less dependent than Britain on global markets to provide the energy it needs. Where the UK is a gas importer, Australia produces a large amount each year and sends about three-quarters of it overseas. Gas prices on Australia’s east coast are tied to global markets and have risen dramatically in the past, but it is within the power of governments to make decisions to ensure that domestic supply is maintained and improved affordability.

Similarly, the continued expansion of solar and wind production in Australia is not affected by energy demand in China, or the whims of the Russian government.

It’s not a new idea, but the biggest risk to the Australian power system remains a failure by governments to plan what everyone knows is ahead: the possible accelerated closure of an old fleet, and more and more economically unaffordable, coal-fired power generators.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/sep/28/explainer-barnaby-joyce-is-right-the-uk-is-in-an-energy-crisis-but-is-it-relevant-to-australia

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