A global energy crisis, higher prices and what it all means to keep Vermont homes warm this winter

A global energy crisis has been unfolding for months now, raising the cost of oil and natural gas and creating a costly problem for about 60% of Vermont households who rely on oil, propane, natural gas or other fossil fuels for heating Theirs. houses.

Government forecasters say the Northeast can see a wetter winter with temperatures above average. But celebrities Almanac of farmers says the northeast should expect a colder-than-average season with a lot of snow. But no matter the forecast, a New England winter will be cold and staying warm is not just about comfort, but a matter of health and safety.

“What you are seeing now, with global oil and gas prices, is really the world that is coming out of COVID,” he said. Seth Blumsack, professor of energy policy, economics and international relations at Penn State University.

He says the dramatic expansion of U.S. oil and gas production in recent decades has kept fuel prices low. Now pandemic outages and new demand are sending shockwaves across the globe.

“Global energy demand has recovered much faster than we expected, especially in Europe and Asia,” Blumsack said. “These countries do not have the same level of energy production as the US. They are not global energy powers like the US, and so they have to enter global markets. And that has really raised prices globally and what it has done to drive up the price of energy we have seen here in the US “

How much the price will rise for New England depends on how people heat their homes.

“Heating oil is really a New England thing in the United States,” he said Elizabeth Wilson, a professor of environmental studies at Dartmouth and director of colleges Arthur Irving Institute for Energy and Society.

“Those of us who heat with propane or heating oil can expect to pay over 40% to 50% more than last year for heating,” she added. “That’s because fuel prices are higher. That’s because it’s a little colder.”

The Vermont Public Utilities Commission regulates the state’s electricity and natural gas providers, which helps close costs for those customers for a given year. This could soften the blow of sharp price increases.

But three in five homes in Vermont are heated with oil or petroleum-based fuels like kerosene and propane, and there is no such oversight over the cost of these fuels. This means that they may face more significant price increases.

“Because heating oil and propane are not regulated by our Public Utilities Commission, those sources will have that market volatility that is affected by markets and demand,” Wilson said.

“And so customers who use natural gas or electricity, where tariffs are regulated, will not see the same changes from year to year as customers who use propane or heating oil, where market volatility in international markets can lead to really consumer costs. ”, she added.

Blumsack said rising natural gas prices could eventually cause electricity costs to rise across New England, which could have negative effects on Vermont tariff payers.

“Vermont’s grid is not an island,” he explained. “It’s really interconnected with the rest of New England’s regional grid. And so, while Vermont itself uses almost no natural gas for electricity, so it does not produce much electricity with natural gas or other fossil fuels, part England’s next new grid Yes, so rising natural gas prices will increase the cost of generating electricity across New England grid, which could result in some higher costs for Vermonters using electric heating this winter. “

No matter how you heat your home, the global energy crisis means there are even more reasons to focus on efficiency: things like insulating your home or upgrading to use less energy to stay warm.

Wilson said Vermontors can get help, whether they rent or have their own home.

“There are things you can do, in terms of air insulation, in terms of extra insulation,” she said. Vermont Efficiency … will help Vermont residents make their homes as efficient as possible. “There are zero-interest loan programs, and all sorts of ways they are trying to help Vermonters get through this difficult time.”

And Blumsack said an increase in fossil fuel heating prices actually offers a chance to think differently about how we keep our homes warm.

“In the longer term, another opportunity that presents high prices for fossil fuels is to look at highly efficient electric heating options,” he said. “These can be good for your portfolio if prices for oil and natural gas stay high, and they will also be good for the planet because they are very efficient and will use an increasingly decarbonised network to heat the houses. “

With about one-third of Vermont greenhouse gas emissions coming from heating our homes and buildings, approximating what is good for the planet and what is good for Vermonters will be even more important if Vermont wants to meet targets for reducing carbon emissions.

Do you have questions, comments or tips? Send us a message or tweet Morning edition host Mitch Wertlieb @mwertlieb.