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La Nia will hit Australia with rain over the summer in a period of wet and windy holidays

 


La Nia is expected to affect the north, center and east of the country, including its largest city, Sydney, during the late spring and early summer of the Southern Hemisphere, possibly as late as autumn, the Australian Bureau said. of Meteorology (BOM).

Meteorologists around the world, including Australia, have been warning for months that La Nia conditions were being created in the Pacific Ocean, and Tuesday’s announcement means parts of the country are on alert for possible flooding and rising tropical cyclones.

“In terms of tropical cyclones, for La Nia, we tend to see more than average – perhaps about 65% chance of seeing more than the average number of 11 tropical cyclones,” the head of the Office of Operational Climate Services said. Andrew Watkins. , said at a press conference.

The same parts of the country already have wet land, full rivers and high catchments from long periods of rain.

“Any further rainfall raises the risk of widespread flooding, usually in Southeast Australia,” he said.

The news puts a hurdle in the plans for millions of Australians planning local beach vacations during the Christmas summer period, many of whom have only recently emerged from blockages during the pandemic.

But La Nia brings several advantages, including the coldest temperatures during the summer, which can usually rise above 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit).

“The good news for La Nia is that it tends to reduce the risk of fire,” Watkins said. “At least for those big fires we saw a few years ago, the risk has diminished.”

La Nia usually occurs at intervals somewhere between a few years and a decade, and generally lasts for a year or two, but it is formed on the heels of another.

What is La Nia?

La Nia events are associated with increased rainfall during spring and summer in most of northern and eastern Australia, leading to an increased risk of flooding.

La Nia is part of a natural cycle called the El Nio South Oscillation – or ENSO – and occurs when cold water builds up on the west coast of the South American continent.

Drawn by strong east winds, the cold water runs west along the Pacific, creating a “cold tongue”. This pushes the warmer waters and a subsequent high-pressure system in front of it. The resulting weather system – filled with warm air and loaded with water – pours extremely heavy rain when it falls to the ground.

His influences vary in different parts of the world.

In the US, for example, La Nia usually brings wetter and colder conditions to the northwestern and northern Pacific plains, but brings drier and warmer conditions than average in the southern states, which can worsen drought in some area there.

As for Australia, the colder waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, along with stronger and persistent winds from southeast to northwest, help shift clouds west, closer to the country, the BOM explained.

“The last major La Nia was 2010-12. This strong event had major impacts across Australia, including Australia’s wettest two-year wet periods in history, and widespread flooding,” Watkins said.

A link to climate change?

The extent to which global warming may have contributed to the intensity of La Nia is not yet known, with data of the event stretching only 60 years ago.

It is not your imagination.  Weather and climate disasters have become more frequent since the 1970s

El Nio and La Nia are events that occur naturally as part of Earth’s weather systems, but research has begun to show that rising global temperatures may mitigate or reverse their effects.

A 2018 study on atmospheric conditions made climatic simulations and found that climate change could increase the severity of weather events derived from El Nio models.

Outside of any impact on hurricanes, climate change may mean that some of the older temperature models associated with El Nio and La Nia no longer apply.

As La Nia tends to cool temperatures, global warming is happening so fast, sometimes its effects are silent.

Long-term weather patterns across Australia are extremely difficult to predict and BOM has collected oral evidence from Aboriginal Australians to better understand the continent’s weather cycles.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.cnn.com/2021/11/23/weather/la-nina-australia-climate-wxc-intl/index.html

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