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Who is Olaf Scholz, the next chancellor of Germany?

 


BERLIN Olaf Scholz succeeded in his campaign to become Germany’s next chancellor, largely convincing voters that he would look very much like the tall, tall figure he would replace: Angela Merkel.

Short, well informed and restrained from every gesture of triumph, Mr. Scholz not only looked like the outgoing chancellor, but he perfected the art of embodying its atmosphere of stability and serenity to the point of holding hands together in its distinctive diamond shape.

He is like a footballer who studied the videos of another player and changed his game, said Robin Alexander, a long-term political observer of Mrs. Merkel and Mr. Scholz. From temperament and political style to facial expression, Scholz now channels Merkel. If Scholz were a woman, he would wear trouser suits.

As Mr Scholz unveils his new government on Wednesday and prepares to take office next month, a question for Germany and for all of Europe and the world is: Can Mrs Merkel give and fill too big shoes?

Rarely has a German leader come to office with so many heated crises.

As soon as he takes the oath as chancellor in early December, Mr. Scholz will have to face a growing pandemic, tensions on the Polish-Belarusian border, a Russian president mobilizing troops on Ukraine’s eastern border, a more confrontational and less China. Reliable United States.

The pressure is great, said Jana Puglierin from the European Council on Foreign Relations. The new government is taking office in a situation that is heating up on many fronts. And when it comes to foreign policy, Olaf Scholz remains a bit of an enigma.

Indeed, who Olaf Scholz will appear as chancellor within two weeks is a matter of intense speculation. A lifelong Social Democrat, Mr. Scholz, 63, has been a prominent figure in German politics for more than two decades and has served in two of Mrs Merkel’s governments, most recently as her finance minister.

But he has also been something of a political chameleon, a pragmatic politician who walks left and right so easily that it is sometimes difficult to know where he stands.

Born in Osnabrck, northern Germany, Mr. Scholz grew up in Hamburg, a city he would later run as mayor. His grandfather was a railroad man, his parents worked in textiles. He and his brothers were the first in his family to go to university.

He was still in high school when he joined the Social Democrats. An ardent young socialist, he spent a decade as a labor lawyer defending workers threatened by factory closures. Subsequently, as general secretary of his party under the last administration of Chancellor Gerhard Schrder’s left center-left, he defended painful labor market reforms with a machine-like efficiency that gave him the Scholzo-mat nickname.

When he was first elected to Parliament, he sat with the left wing of his party. Today he is considered to be to the right of most of its base, unlike President Biden in the United States, with whom he is sometimes compared.

But as with Biden, some see some leftist reflexes.

Mr Scholz lost his race for party leadership to a left-wing party two years ago, but surprised and impressed some of his fiercest critics in his party when he pulled out a hundreds of billions of euros in aid state to assist distressed workers and businesses during the pandemic.

Some hope this and the theme of his election campaign, centered on respect for the working class, was proof that the youth idealist, who became a post-ideological centrist, could once again return more radically to his 60s.

Bazuka was a big moment, said Kevin Khnert, an open left wing and one of the Social Democrat vice presidents. It was the belated peace with his party. And it was the beginning of a deeper social transformation he hoped for.

Mr Scholz, who reportedly lost 12 kilograms, about 26 kilograms and stopped drinking alcohol before the election, has long been underestimated. He has always played a long game. His ambition to become chancellor dates back to 2011, according to a close ally.

Even political opponents speak with admiration of his political instinct, perseverance and calm self-confidence. Three years ago, when his party’s approval ratings were fluctuating close to record levels, he told the New York Times that the Social Democrats would win the next election.

Like Mrs. Merkel, he has a reputation as a safe-handed couple and a worthy person with a bipartisan atmosphere.

Merkel is beyond party politics, she is the voice of reason, said Mr. Alexander, who wrote a best-selling book about the end of the Merkel era. Being at the center of politics as a person, this is what Merkel did so masterfully and that is what Scholz aims for.

This political flexibility could make him now the perfect leader to face what could be his enduring challenge as chancellor to maintain peace in an unusual and unproven tripartite coalition with two ideologically divergent parties: the Progressive Greens, the who want to spend 50 billion euros. or about $ 56 billion, for a green transition, and the pro-market Free Democrats, who will control the finance ministry and with it the wires.

But it also risks not satisfying anyone. How immersed Mr. Scholz to balance the country’s conflicting demands, observers say, could affect his ability to advance his government’s ambitious agenda to prepare Germany for a carbon-neutral future and a digital age.

It will also determine how big a role Germany can play abroad. If Mr. Scholz is very distracted by internal tensions, Europe and the world will feel the loss of Ms. Merkel’s leadership, analysts predict.

But if all goes well, Mr. Scholz Germany could turn out to be a major force for European cohesion, for more transatlantic unity in the fight against climate change and to face strategic competitors like China and Russia, and, some hope, for a resurrection. social democracy in different parts of the world.

Foreign policy was barely discussed in the election campaign, but along with the pandemic could end up dominating the first months of the new administration. Germany is taking over the presidency of Group 7 in January and Mr. Scholz will immediately be the center of attention on him in a host of pressing international issues.

He has a seemingly center-left ally in President Biden. Since former President Bill Clinton’s second term, the White House and the German chancellery have not been in the hands of center-left leaders.

But no one in Berlin is relying too much on Washington.

“We do not know how credible the Biden administration is and we do not know how much it will be in power,” she said. Puglierin from the European Council on Foreign Relations.

One of Mr. Scholz’s advisers said bluntly: Biden is America first, simply more polite.

As a result, Mr. Scholz will focus his energy on strengthening the European Union, his advisers say. His first foreign visit will be to President Emmanuel Macron in France, who faces his difficult election campaign next year. Support for Mr Macron, who will take over the rotating presidency of the European Union in January, is a goal.

We will talk much more about European sovereignty. We will sound more French. But in reality it will be difficult to turn this into real politics, Ms Puglierin said.

Few analysts expect the new chancellor to change course significantly from Merkel, who took her to her last Group 20 meeting last month and introduced her to a number of world leaders, including President Biden.

Don’t expect too much change, Nils Schmid, the Social Democrats’ foreign policy spokesman, said last weekend.

For those of Germany’s allies hoping for a much stronger stance on China and Russia and an increase in military spending, this promise of continuity can only be partially reassuring.

But with so many fires burning on the international stage and some evolving structural geopolitical changes, circumstances and his tougher coalition partners could force the hand of new chancellors, said Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff of the German Marshall Fund.

One of the first tests Mr. Scholz will face is how to deal with Poland, which has violated some of the democratic principles of EU membership but is also under pressure from neighboring Belarus, a Russian ally that has sent migrants. on the Polish border in an apparent attempt to destabilize the bloc.

Mr Scholz The Social Democrats are traditionally ashamed of Russia, backing projects like the disruptive Nordstream II pipeline. But if Moscow launches another offensive in Ukraine, it would be another important test.

In China, the picture is more complicated.

The Social Democrats have signaled that Mr. Scholz would not become aggressive overnight and close ranks with the United States.

If you look at Merkel’s policy on China, I think Olaf Scholz will be more like this than the US policy towards China, said Lars Klingbeil, the Social Democrats’ secretary general and a close ally of Mr. Scholz last month.

But as Beijing has become more confrontational and German industry more open to its dependence on the Chinese market, Germany’s policy on China is ripe to evolve from the soft mercantilist touch of the Merkel era, analysts say.

Scholz has influence and he will gain more power in office, said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank. He has the potential to be a strong leader with an international position as long as he keeps his coalition united.

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