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GroupM Forecast – The Hollywood Reporter




Global advertising in 2021 and 2022 will end up growing faster than previously expected as the recovery from the coronavirus pandemic continues, according to the latest forecast of media investment giant GroupM.

But TV advertising spending looks set to last until 2023, when the firm’s estimate seeks to reach $ 168.6 billion, to reach and exceed the same levels as in 2019 before COVID-19 ($ 167.8 billion), she predicted.

After falling 3.1 percent, excluding political advertising in the US to adjust for the difference between election and non-election years, to $ 623.0 billion in 2020, the firm now wants global advertising to grow 22.5 percent this year to $ 763.2 billion. dollars, from its June forecast. a profit of 19.2 percent.

Better-than-expected profits will continue into 2022, with advertising spending expected to rise 9.7 percent to $ 836.9 billion instead of the 8.8 percent previously projected, GroupM said. In 2025, global media revenues will exceed $ 1 trillion after reaching $ 999.9 billion in 2024, according to recent estimates.

“We acknowledge that the growth rates observed in 2021 appear to be historical anomalies in a more accustomed industry with average single-digit levels,” GroupM wrote in its forecast, presented at UBS’s annual Technology, Media and Global Telecom Conference. “However, an increasing rate of expansion for the advertising industry can continue as long as economies around the world are producing companies that are more dependent on advertising than those they replace.”

The report also identified “key drivers of faster-than-expected growth,” including “small start-ups distributing more nationally-oriented digital advertising resources,” application developers, and other digital businesses. rooted in the internet economy that are focused on growth driven by advertising, as well as “China-based merchants taking advantage of low-cost international transportation and using global digital platforms to reach overseas customers.”

Looking at the regions, GroupM said that “many underlying trends appear to be disproportionately concentrated in the US, UK and China, which together account for approximately 70 percent of all industry growth, despite accounting for about 60 percent of the total market “.

Looking at the top 10 advertising markets over the next five years, the company predicts that the US, France, Germany and Australia will have average growth of 4-5 percent per year, while India, the UK, Brazil, Canada, Japan and China is projected to grow 6-8 percent per year.

Digital advertising this year will mark a 30.5 per cent increase, from the June forecast of 26 per cent and a 12.5 per cent increase in 2020, GroupM said. “Digital advertising accounted for 64.4 percent of all advertising in 2021, up from 60.5 percent in 2020,” it said. “Alphabet, Meta and Amazon make up 80-90 percent of the global total.”

Television advertising is projected to grow by 11.7 percent in 2021, from a June estimate of 9.3 percent, following a decline of 13.7 percent in 2020. While it will reach $ 171 billion in 2022, “the industry is not expected to return at the levels of 2019 until 2023. ”, predicted GroupM. “The following years will be roughly flat – up to 1-2 percent per year until 2026 – for TV commercials in most major markets around the world, as larger advertisers continue to drastically change costs. . ”

However, audio advertising should have a growth of 15.6 percent in 2021 and 6.4 percent in 2022, GroupM predicts. “In the coming years, we assume a return to historical trends: mostly flat,” the company stressed however.




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