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The hope seen as soon as the omicron wave boosts global immunity

 


World health officials are offering hope that the fading of the omicron wave could pave the way for a new, more manageable phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, although they warn of difficult weeks ahead and the possibility of another variant emerging. dangerous.

In the US, cases have risen and are falling rapidly, following a first pattern in Britain and South Africa, with researchers predicting a period of low prevalence in many countries by the end of March. Although deaths in the US now in 2000 are still rising every day, new hospital admissions have begun to fall and a drop in deaths is expected.

Encouraging trends after two years of coronavirus misery have brought a markedly hopeful tone from health experts. The pink predictions have been shattered before, but this time they are backed by what might be called the silver omicrons lining: The highly contagious variant will leave behind extremely high levels of immunity.

On Sunday, Dr. Anthony Fauci spoke to ABC This Week about a best-case scenario where COVID-19 would fall to manageable levels so the United States could return to a degree of normalcy.

And on Monday, the World Health Organization issued a statement predicting the end of the emergency phase of the pandemic this year and saying the omicron variant offers credible hope for stabilization and normalization.

Both Fauci and the WHO Regional Director for Europe, Dr. Hans Kluge, warned that new variants are likely to emerge, but with vaccination, new drug therapies and during growth testing and masks, the world can reach a less devastating level of the disease in which. the virus is, as Fauci said, essentially integrated into the general respiratory infections we have learned to live with.

In the US, new cases are reaching an still extremely high average of 680,000 per day, from an all-time peak of over 800,000 just over a week ago.

Countries in the US where omicron hit first are seeing the sharpest declines. New cases in the Northeast are nose-dipping, while other states Arizona, Texas, Oregon, Kansas and North Dakota among them are still waiting for relief.

New admissions to US hospitals for confirmed COVID-19 patients are also falling. They are on average about 20,000 a day, about 7% less than a week ago, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

These figures include patients who went to the hospital for other reasons and tested positive. But even after calculating these random infections, the trend is promising.

An influential model predicts that almost all nations will cross the Omicron wave by mid-March, including China and other countries with zero COVID policies. The wave will leave behind high levels of immunity from both infection and vaccination which can lead to low levels of transmission for many weeks or months.

What do we end up with at the end of this? tha Dr. Christopher Murray from the University of Washington, who developed closely monitored model of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. We end up with the highest levels of global immunity we have seen in pandemics.

The model estimates that 57% of the world’s population has already been infected with the virus at least once.

Another research group, which combines several models and shares forecasts with the White House, predicts a sharp decline in infections in the U.S. by April, unless a new variant emerges that could bypass rising levels of immunity.

It would be dangerous to forget this opportunity, as it has seized us before, said Katriona Shea of ​​Pennsylvania State University, a team leader who brings together models.

She also noted that forecasts show that 16,000 to 98,000 more Americans die before the Omicron wave ends. The death toll in the US is close to 870,000.

“Even if we project a more optimistic future, we still have a lot of COVID spreads, a lot of strain on our hospital systems and our deaths have not yet peaked,” said Lauren Ancel Meyers, director of the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium. .

There is still a lot of pain before omicron has walked, she said, but added: It is very plausible that omicron will be a turning point in our relationship with this virus.

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The Associated Press Department of Health and Science receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Education Science Department. AP is solely responsible for all content.

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