Netanyahu faces obstacles to build coalition after Israeli election victory

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu did better than expected in the March 2 Israeli election, but could still lose his job.

Netanyahu is seeking a record fifth term after serving as Prime Minister from 1996 to 1999 and since 2009. He could, however, be prevented from forming a ruling coalition again, as he was in a stalemate in political negotiations after inconclusive elections in April. and September 2019.

Netanyahu, the longest-serving prime minister in Israeli history, won an important political victory as his Likud party recovered as the largest Knesset party, the Israeli parliament.

In the third Israeli election in less than a year, Likud won 36 seats (up from 32 in the September elections), overshadowing its biggest rival, the center-left blue and white party, which has again won 33.

However, Netanyahu failed to restore the 61-seat majority he won with Allied political parties in the elections he won in 2015, but lost in 2019.

The alliance of right-wing and religious parties that formed the previous Netanyahu government this time won 58 seats, three less than the majority needed to form a government in the 120-seat Knesset.

Netanyahu, who campaigned under a cloud after being indicted in December for corruption (which he vehemently denies), has exceeded expectations. He thanked the voters for the biggest victory in my life in his victory speech.

But it is not yet known whether it will be able to break the political deadlock that prevented the formation of a coalition government after the last two elections.

Backstage negotiations heat up

Israel is now in the midst of a long period of political maneuvering and horse trading as Netanyahu and blue-and-white leader Benny Gantz compete to tinker with a ruling coalition in a fractured and polarized political environment in Israel.

In the previous September elections, Netanyahu won the support of 60 Knesset members, but still has not been able to reach the 61-seat majority needed to form a ruling coalition.

If neither Netanyahu nor Gantz are able to form a government, as happened after the previous two elections, Netanyahu would continue to play the role of interim prime minister until Israel organizes a fourth election.

Netanyahu was to benefit from the recent unveiling of President Donald Trumps' peace plan. But the Trump plan was also adopted by Gantz and appears to have had little impact on the election result.

A more important factor is that Netanyahu was helped by an effective vote-out effort that used sophisticated data to reach Likud voters and potential supporters to encourage them to vote.

Netanyahu also foiled Gantz, the former chief of staff of the IDF. Gantz was an exemplary general, but a poorly focused candidate with limited political instincts who was an uninspiring public speaker.

Netanyahu and his supporters have aggressively criticized Gantz as an inarticulate, weak, and possibly corrupt leader, suggesting without evidence that a criminal investigation into a start-up company with which Gantz was involved could implicate him.

Gantz ran a reactive, defensive campaign, forced to publicly deny that he was mentally ill or vulnerable to blackmail after critics made unproven allegations that there was embarrassing information on his phone , who had been hacked by Iranians.

These accusations put Gantz on the back foot and diverted attention from the political vulnerability of Netanyahus; namely, his indictment for fraud, corruption and breach of trust.

Netanyahu is seeking to form a government before his trial begins on March 17.

If he enters the courtroom as acting Prime Minister, this would strengthen his legal defense and reinforce the argument that the public voted to return him to office, but the court process would bypass the public will.

The formation of a government would also strengthen Netanyahus' ability to seek a plea agreement or promote legislation to obtain immunity from prosecution.

If found guilty, he will have to resign from his post as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, he is actively engaged in the conservation of his office by creating a government coalition.

Assemble a political puzzle

Netanyahu's options include entering into an agreement with political parties outside of his coalition or attempting to attract individual defectors from those parties.

Many Israelis support a government of national unity that would include Likud parties and blue and white parties, while easing political polarization. Gantz, however, refused to join a government coalition that would force him to serve with or under an accused Prime Minister.

Gantz could possibly reconsider this position. He knows he could be replaced at the head of the blue and white party if he fails to defeat Netanyahu for the third time. In addition, the Israeli centrist parties have historically disintegrated if they have been repeatedly excluded from ruling coalitions.

However, instead of joining a coalition with the Likud, Gantz seeks to reach an agreement with Avigdor Lieberman, the leader of the secular nationalist party Israel Our Home.

A maverick politician who was once a close associate of Netanyahu before breaking away from Likud to form his own party, Lieberman refused to join the Netanyahu coalition last year because he refused to support efforts by Liebermans to end military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox Jews.

On March 9, Lieberman and Gantz announced an agreement in principle to work together to form a new government. In addition to the seven members of the Liebermans Knesset, Gantz hopes to attract the support of most of the 15 members of the Common List, a coalition of four Arab-majority parties.

It is a risky decision because Lieberman in the past has ruled out supporting any government that would include the Common List. But after meeting Gantz on March 9, he said the worst option was a fourth election, implying that he could accept a tacit alliance with the Arab parties.

Gantz's efforts to gain support from the Joint List could also backfire on him in his own party. At least two of the blue and white Knesset members reject any cooperation with the Arab parties and could defect to Netanyahu.

The bottom line is that more than a week after the Israeli elections, it is still unclear whether a leader is capable of reaching the threshold of 61 seats necessary to form a government of coalition.