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Global economic growth slowed due to the spread of the war in Ukraine

Global economic growth slowed due to the spread of the war in Ukraine

 


of mid-year forecast shows how there was conflict reversed the fragile economic recovery from COVID-19 pandemic, triggering a humanitarian crisis in Europe, raising food and commodity prices, and exacerbating inflationary pressures.

Global inflation is also expected to reach 6.7 percent this year, or double the average of 2.9 percent during 2010-2020, with sharp increases in food and energy prices.

Rapid decisive action: Guterres

The war in Ukraine in all its dimensions – is setting in motion a crisis that is also destroying global energy markets, disrupting financial systems and exacerbating extreme weaknesses for the developing world, the UN said. Secretary General Antonio Guterres.

We need quick and decisive action to ensure a steady flow of food and energy in open markets, removing export restrictions, distributing surpluses and reserves to those in need, and addressing rising food prices to calm market volatility, he added. ai.

The declining growth outlook includes the world’s largest economies, the United States, China and the European Union, as well as most other developed and emerging economies.

Higher energy and food prices are particularly affecting emerging economies importing goods, and the outlook is complicated by worsening food insecurity, particularly in Africa.

Energy shock in Europe

The WESP report, published by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), examines how the widespread effects of the war in Ukraine are affecting different regions.

The Russian occupation began on February 24, and in addition to the tragic loss of life and the unfolding humanitarian crisis – with more than six million refugees alone – it has also demanded severe damage to the economies of both countries.

Neighboring economies in Central Asia and Europe, including the European Union (EU), are also affected.

of rising energy prices has dealt a blow to the EU, which imported nearly 57.5 per cent of its total energy consumption in 2020. Economic growth is projected to grow by just 2.7 per cent, instead of the 3.9 per cent projected in January.

Nearly a quarter of European energy consumption in 2020 came from oil and natural gas imported from Russia, and a sudden stop of flows is likely to lead to rising energy prices and inflationary pressures.

EU member states from Eastern Europe and the Baltic region have been hit hard as they are already experiencing inflation rates well above the EU average, the report said.

Difficulties of inflation

In developing countries and the least developed countries of the world (LDC), high inflation is reducing the real income of families.

This is especially the case in developing countries, where poverty is more prevalent and wage growth remains limited, while fiscal support to mitigate the impact of higher oil and food prices is limited.

Rising food and energy costs also have negative effects on the rest of the economy posing a challenge to comprehensive recovery after the pandemic as low-income families are disproportionately affected.

Moreover, the monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve in the United States, the country’s central banking authority, is also set to increase borrowing costs and exacerbate funding gaps in developing countries, including the world’s most limited countries.

Developing countries will need it bears on the impact of aggressive monetary tightening by the Fed and put in place macroprudential measures to curb unexpected outflows and stimulate productive investment, said Hamid Rashid, DESAs Chief of the Global Economic Monitoring Branch and lead author of the report.

Challenged climate action

War is also unfolding at a time when global Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are at record levels, and rising energy prices will also affect global efforts to address climate change. As countries seek to expand energy supplies amid high oil and gas prices, the report predicts fossil fuel production is likely to increase in the short term.

Meanwhile, high prices of nickel and other metals could negatively affect the production of electric vehicles, while rising food prices may limit the use of biofuels.

However, countries can also address their energy and food security concerns highlighted by the crisis from accelerating the adoption of renewable resources and increase efficiency, thus strengthening the fight against climate change, said Shantanu Mukherjee, Director of Economic Policy and Analysis at DESAs.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/05/1118532

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