An improving global economy means good news for the US economy
of January work report showed that half a million new jobs were created last month and unemployment was extremely low, equivalent to its level in the 1960s. That was a pretty clear signal that the economy doesn’t appear to be cooling as much as some economists feared it might after several rounds of interest rate hikes.
The global economy may not be as bad as experts feared. It slowed significantly in 2022 and is expected to weaken further this year. But some parts of the globe are performing better than expected.
Energy prices have fallen. Inflation is slowing down. And in many countries, COVID is no longer a serious economic obstacle.
The global outlook has definitely improved over the last two months,” he said Neil Shearing at Capital Economics. He added that the outlook for Europe previously looked dire, with Russia’s war in Ukraine making natural gas scarce and expensive.
However, in recent months, Shearing said, the price of European natural gas has absolutely fallen, and that really removes a significant headwind against the Eurozone economy.
Europe has also done a good job of conserving its natural gas.
We’ve had an unusually mild winter here in Europe,” explains Shearing. “For a large part of January, we were actually building up gas supplies at the depot, believe it or not.
China, meanwhile, has abandoned its zero-COVID policy and unleashed a wave of consumer spending, according to Shearing.
I think the economic recovery in China is going to be faster than investors and other people are predicting,” Shearing said.
But China’s comeback will be nothing like that A recreation of the “retaliatory spending” we saw in the USfor Adam Posen in Peterson Institute for International Economics.
They did not create the kind of excess savings in China that we saw created in the US, in part because for large numbers of Chinese [citizens]they had to survive on their savings, Posen said.
Posen added that the big emerging markets Brazil, India, Mexico, Indonesia are doing quite well.
Plus, despite ongoing problems like Ukraine’s wheat withdrawal, concerns about food insecurity are declining. Morning consultations Sonnet Frisbie said the polling firm asked consumers around the world if they worried about paying for groceries.
I was surprised to find that there wasn’t a big difference in emerging and developed markets,” Frisbie said.
Bottom line: If the global economy ends up performing a little better than economists predicted, that only helps the U.S. economy
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