Heatwaves in US and Europe would be ‘virtually impossible’ without climate change, new report finds

CNN
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Extreme heat waves on three continents this month made significantly more likely by the human-caused climate crisis, according to a new analysis published on Tuesday, as temperatures still heat up in parts of the Northern Hemisphere.

The heat inferno that has scorched parts of the United States and southern Europe would have been virtually impossible without climate change, while climate change has caused China to experience at least 50 times more heat waves, according to a rapid attribution analysis by the World Weather Attribution initiative.

WWA, an international group of scientists that assess the role of climate change in extreme weather events, spent a week analyzing the dangerous heatwaves that swept the Northern Hemisphere in July, destroying crops and livestock, causing fires, exacerbating water stress and killing people on three continents.

Temperatures in Death Valley reached 128 degrees Fahrenheit (53.3 Celsius) this month, and the city of Phoenix has experienced a record 25 consecutive days of temperatures hotter than 110 degrees Fahrenheit (43.3 Celsius).

China posted an all-time national high temperature of 52.2 degrees Celsius (126 Fahrenheit) earlier this month. And in Europe, local records were broken in parts of Spain and Italy as temperatures climbed to an all-time European record of 48.8 degrees Celsius (119.8 Fahrenheit).

To understand the extent to which the climate crisis affected the likelihood and intensity of July’s extreme heat, the WWA team examined weather data and computer models to compare the world’s current climate, which is about 1.2 degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial era, with past climates.

They found that the role of climate change is absolutely overwhelming, said Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London.

If humans hadn’t warmed the planet by burning oil, coal and gas, these types of heat waves would be extremely rare, Otto told reporters on Monday. But as the world continues to burn fossil fuels, they are no longer unusual, she said.

In today’s climate, extreme heat waves like the ones the world is currently experiencing are expected once every 15 years for the US and Mexico, once every 10 years for southern Europe and once every five years for China, the analysis found.

Scientists found that climate change has not only drastically increased the likelihood of these heat waves occurring, but is also making them hotter.

Planet-warming pollution made Europe’s heat wave 2.5 degrees Celsius hotter, North America’s heat wave 2 degrees Celsius hotter and China’s heat wave 1 degree Celsius hotter, according to the report.

It could be worse in the store. If the average planets temperatures rise to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, extreme heat waves can be expected every two to five years, according to the report.

It could be that this is what a cool summer will be like in the future if we don’t stop burning fossil fuels quickly, Otto said.

Scientists said the emerging El Nio, the natural climate pattern with a warming influence, is likely to help raise temperatures slightly, but global warming from burning fossil fuels was the main reason heat waves are so severe.

The result of this attribution study is not surprising. The world has not stopped burning fossil fuels, the climate continues to warm and heat waves continue to become more extreme. It’s that simple, Otto said in a statement.

But the study should not be interpreted as evidence of rapid warming or climate collapse, she added.

We still have time to ensure a safe and healthy future, but we urgently need to stop burning fossil fuels and invest in reducing vulnerability. If we don’t, tens of thousands of people will continue to die from heat-related causes every year.

Heat waves are one of the deadliest natural hazards. More than 61,000 people died of heat-related deaths during Europe’s record heat wave last year, according to a recent study.

In Mexico, more than 100 people have died from the heat since March, while countries from the US to Italy have reported huge jumps in human hospital admissions. struggle to cope with increasing temperatures.

Society must rapidly reduce pollution from warming the planet, the report’s authors said. But they too called on countries and cities to adapt health, urban and energy systems, as well as accelerate the submission of action plans on heat, to better prepare for the extreme heat that the climate crisis has already engulfed.

Richard Allan, professor of climate science at the University of Reading in the UK, who was not involved in the study, said fluctuating weather patterns determined the location and timing of these heat waves.

But climate warming is driving moderate heat waves to exceed league extremes and what would be league-leading heat waves in unlikely events in a climate without the warming effects of fossil fuel greenhouse gas emissions.