International
The world may soon see a massive oil glut. That is why.
The world could have an oil glut by the end of the decade due to rising production combined with falling demand as consumers and businesses switch to electric vehicles and renewable energy, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.
International Energy Agency said On Wednesday, the world's total oil supply capacity is expected to rise to about 114 million barrels per day by 2030, which the group said would add up to 8 million barrels per day beyond forecast demand.
That kind of spare capacity has not been seen outside of the 2020 COVID-19 lockdowns, when economies around the world shut down as governments sought to stop the spread of the deadly virus, the IEA said. The additional capacity could have “significant consequences for oil markets,” ranging from the US to OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, he added.
“This report's projections, based on the most recent data, show a large oversupply emerging this decade, suggesting that oil companies may want to ensure their strategies and business plans are prepared for the changes that are happening,” said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. a statement.
Among the drivers for the increase in diesel supply are expectations that Americans and consumers in other developed countries will continue to switch to electric vehicles. Global sales of EVs could reach 40 million cars by 2030, with almost one in two new cars expected to be an EV by then, the IEA predicted.
Could gas prices fall?
It is possible that an oil glut could lead to a “lower price environment,” according to the IEA report. However, the analysis includes three projections of where oil prices could be in 2030, ranging from a high of more than $90 a barrel to a low of less than $60 a barrel within six years. Currently, oil is trading at around $82 per barrel.
However, one expert cautioned against reading too much into the report.
“It's a long-term perspective, so it could be very far, or very close, but I'm a little more concerned with the slowdown in EV adoption and the tremendous costs for countries that adopt EVs,” Patrick De Haan, head of oil. analysis at GasBuddy, told CBS MoneyWatch in an email.
Cheaper gas prices may not materialize until 2030 because some refineries have closed in the US and Europe and there are fewer plans to build new facilities given the shift to solar, wind and other energy sources. renewable, he added.
“[T]the future is hazy when it comes to this potential impact on gasoline prices,” De Haan said. “We will still need refineries for some time, and if they close while the transition occurs, that could drive gas prices higher for a long time. run.”
In the short term, drivers are getting short-term relief, like gas prices now they are falling across the country due to weaker demand and lower oil prices. The average price for regular unleaded gas in the US was $3.44 a gallon on Monday, down about 9 cents from a week ago and 14 cents from a year ago. according to in AAA.
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