The Israel-Hamas war: Why Hezbollah is threatening Cyprus

Editors Note: A version of this story appears on CNN. Meanwhile in the Middle East newsletter, a thrice-weekly look inside the region's biggest stories.Register here.

CNN
–

In a fiery speech this week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah singled out nearby Cyprus, threatening to target the small, divided Mediterranean island if it helps Israel in a potential war between the Lebanese militant group and Israel.

Cyprus will also be part of this fight if it opens its airports and bases to Israeli forces, the leader of the Iran-backed militant group said in a televised address on Wednesday, a day after Israel warned that the prospect of an all-out war in Lebanon was came very close.

Responding to the comments, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides denied involvement in the war.

The statements are not pleasant, but they do not correspond in any way to what is being attempted to present an image that Cyprus is involved in war operations. No way, he said, adding that the lines of communication are open with the Lebanese and Iranian governments.

The European Union came to the defense of Cyprus on Thursday, saying that since the island is an EU member state, it means the EU is Cyprus and Cyprus is the EU.

Any threat to one of our member states is a threat to the EU, Peter Stanoan EU spokesperson told reporters.

Neighboring Greece also expressed its opinion undivided solidarity with Cyprus, saying in X that the threat to use force is a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter.

In an apparent effort to control the damage, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib called his Cypriot counterpart, Konstantinos Kombos, expressing Lebanon's continued confidence in the positive role played by Cyprus in supporting stability in the region, according to Lebanese state media.

While experts say war between Israel and Hezbollah remains unlikely, the very mention of Cyprus adds a new dimension to the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. It risks drawing an EU nation into a war that has already spread across the Middle East and is putting Cyprus' ties to Israel in the spotlight.

Here's what we know.

An island in the Eastern Mediterranean located on a geopolitical fault line between the Middle East and Southern Europe, Cyprus is geographically much closer to the conflicts in the Middle East than to the centers of European power.

The island is twice the size of the US state of Delaware and is divided into two parts: a Greek-speaking southern part known as the Republic of Cyprus and a Turkish-speaking region known as the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. The division of the islands reflects the rivalry between regional enemies Greece and Turkey. Most of the international community only recognizes the sovereignty of the Greek part of Cyprus, and this was the nation towards which the threats of the Nasrallahs were directed.

The Republic of Cyprus is a member of the EU, but not of the NATO defense alliance, which obliges member countries to defend each other in case of attack. It is the house of about 920,000 peoplewith Nicosia as its capital.

Diplomatic relations between Cyprus and Israel began in 1960, after the islands' independence from British colonial rule, but Cyprus did not open an embassy in Tel Aviv until 1994. Relations deteriorated in the 1980s and 1990s over issues including Israel's close ties to Turkey and the Arab-Israeli conflict, in which Cyprus sided with the Arab states and supported Palestinian statehood.

Links returned at the end the 1990s and 2000sas Israel began to turn to the Eastern Mediterranean for economic partnerships, especially after the discovery of natural gas in the region. Experts say that even Israel has looked at Cyprus as a partner to deter regional threats, particularly from Turkey and Iran-linked groups.

Israel has done in recent years used Cypriot territory for training its troops in possible war with Hezbollah. The terrain of Cyprus is similar to that of Lebanon, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have said. according to Israeli media.

In 2022, the IDF conducted a joint military exercise with Cypriot forces. Some of the joint training focused on fighting multiple fronts and focusing on fighting Hezbollah in Lebanon, Israeli media reports. Their last exercises were completed in May 2023 in Cyprus.

The Cypriot presidency said on Thursday X Thursday that the country has never relieved and will not facilitate any act of aggression or attack against any country.

Cyprus has been keen to dismiss any suggestion that it is involved in the Gaza war, pointing to its humanitarian efforts that helped bring some aid to Gaza.

The Republic of Cyprus is not part of the problem. The Republic of Cyprus is part of the solution, said Christodoulides, the president. And our role in this, as shown, for example, through the humanitarian corridor, is recognized not only by the Arab world, but by the international community as a whole.

In March, Cyprus began allowing aid ships to sail from its ports as part of international efforts to establish a humanitarian aid route by sea to Gaza.

The first sea shipment to Gaza carried 200 tons of food, which is equivalent to approximately 500,000 meals. An EU logistics center was also set up in Cyprus to facilitate the flow of aid to Gaza.

Nicosia has criticized some of Israel's actions in Gaza, particularly those that have prevented the delivery of humanitarian aid.

In April, it issued a joint statement with the United Arab Emirates, condemning the deadly Israeli attack on the charity group World Central Kitchen that killed seven people.

It has also repeatedly condemned Hamas for the October 7 attack on Israel.

The island has previously been caught in the crossfire of regional conflicts, a reminder of its proximity to the volatile Middle East. In 2019, a suspected Russian-made missile exploded over the region of northern Cyprus. Cypriot officials believed the missile was linked to military operations in Syria, saying it landed less than 15 (24 km) miles north of the capital Nicosia.

A scenario in which Israel uses Cypriot bases for its military forces, which Hezbollah has warned against, would effectively extend the Gaza war into the European Union, Mohammad Ali Shabani, Iranian analyst and editor of Amwaj.media, wrote in X .

This means that an EU country is, for the first time, directly involved in an extended Gaza war.

However, some experts say the prospect of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict erupting into an all-out war is unlikely, as neither side wants such an escalation.

Hezbollah's release of drone footage of sensitive positions inside Israel is intended as a deterrent to Israel, Lina Khatib, a fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House in London, told CNN, referring to the 9-minute drone . video released by Hezbollah on Tuesday showing civilian and military locations in and around the Israeli city of Haifa.

It is normal for both Israel and Hezbollah to have military plans for dealing with a possible escalation. But as things stand, neither Israel nor Hezbollah benefit from all-out war, Khatib said, adding that Hezbollah knows that war with Israel would be devastating for Lebanon and that there is no popular appetite for such a scenario in the country.

The Biden administration is also unlikely to allow Israel to fight a two-front war on its own, she said, adding that US involvement could attract other Iranian-backed actors, as well as the potential for Iran itself to be targeted.

That's a high cost Iran wants to avoid paying, she said. The US also does not want to find itself in another Middle East quagmire, especially with the presidential election around the corner.