What is at stake in Mauritania's presidential elections? | Election News

Voters will head to the polls across Mauritania on June 29 in an election that will be a litmus test for the northeast African nation's fledgling and fragile democracy.

A vast but sparsely populated desert country of about 4.5 million people, Mauritania has long been wracked by coups and military rule. The country has been under military dictatorship for almost all of its 64 years since gaining independence from France in 1960. The first peaceful transfer of power came in 2019, when then-incumbent President Mohamed Ould Abdel Aziz chose not to run. for a third term.

The country is beset by neighbors fighting armed violence involving a variety of groups, and analysts say Mauritania faces the risk of insecurity spilling over into its territory.

Mauritania also has a legacy of racial discrimination that is still alive: Mauritania was the last country to abolish slavery in 1981, and crackdowns on activists by the black Mauritanian population have led to tensions in recent months. Racial disparities also appear in access to education, health and land.

About two million people are eligible to vote on Saturday. Here's everything you need to know about the upcoming polls:

Who is running?

There are seven candidates for president.

• President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani Representing the ruling El Insaf or Equity party, experts say the 67-year-old incumbent is the favorite to win the election. Ghazouani will seek a second and final five-year term after leading the country's first democratic transition since 2019. The president was a former soldier. He served as the former army chief under his predecessor, Aziz, who handpicked him for the top post. In 2019, he won 52 percent of the vote in a competitive and largely peaceful election.
• Biram Ould Dah Ould Abeid The 59-year-old MP is running under the banner of the Reestablishment for Global Action (RAG) alliance. He came second with 19 percent of the vote in 2019. The anti-slavery activist is well known for speaking out for Afro-Mauritanians who make up the majority of the population but have historically faced discrimination. The activist has been jailed several times under previous governments for his outspokenness and campaigns, under his non-profit Initiative for the Revival of the Abolitionist Movement (IRA-Mauritania).
• Outouma Antoine Souleimane Soumare An independent candidate, the neurosurgeon has campaigned for social justice, promising to change the constitution so that it can more equally represent all social backgrounds and pledging to provide basic amenities, especially for communities outside the capital, Nouakchott. Soumare is seen by many as a more moderate alternative to Abeid.

Other candidates include:

• Hamadi Sidi Mokhtar Mohamed Abdi of the conservative Tawassoul party, the main opposition with the largest number of seats in parliament after El Insaf. Abdi is pushing for further strengthening of Islamic law in the Muslim-majority country.
• Mamadou Bocar Baof the Alliance for Justice and Democracy movement which mainly represents Black Mauritanians.
• El Id Mohameden MBareck of the coalition of the Republican Front for Unity and Democracy (FRUD) or Hope Mauritania.
• Mohamed Lemine El Mourteji El Wafi, who is running for the second time as an independent candidate.

What are the main issues?

• Unemployment: Mauritanians under the age of 25 make up 60 percent of the population. A combination of limited employment opportunities and a lack of necessary skills means that youth unemployment is at 23 percent, with thousands unable to find work.
• Poverty: Mauritania is one of the poorest countries in the world and more than half of the population lives in poverty, most of them children. These conditions have increasingly pushed young people to make deadly journeys in broken boats in the hope of reaching Europe. Some have also taken to flying to visa-free South American countries and then traveling through the dangerous Darien Gap to reach the United States. In March, the EU signed a multibillion-dollar deal with Nouakchott to increase border policing and reduce migrant arrivals.
• Amenities: Improving access to basic amenities such as electricity and water is also a key demand of many voters. More than half of the country had no access to electricity in 2020, according to the International Energy Agency.
• But also pressing is the insecurity that is spreading just beyond the eastern border with Mali and that threatens to spill over into a stable Mauritania. Incumbent Ghazouani has argued on the campaign trail that the country needs his stable leadership to avoid the possibility of extremism returning as a serious threat: Mauritania had successfully suppressed armed groups in 2011.
• “We haven't seen insecurity in Mauritania itself, but we do see that there is pressure on that border, we've seen activity there, whether it's attacks or extremist groups trying to infiltrate border communities,” said Dan Eizenga, a West Africa researcher at the Center of Africa for US-based Strategic. Studies. Tensions are simmering between Bamako and Nouakchott as well, the researcher said, as Mauritania has accused Malian troops of killing its own citizens in pursuit of armed groups.

• Refugees: People fleeing violence in Mali continue to push towards the country. So far, more than 70,000 refugees are in or around the Mbera camp in the southeastern country, and another 11,000 are spread across Nouakchott and the commercial coastal city of Nouadhibou.

What is Ghazouan's legacy?

Supporters of the current president claim that he has significantly distanced the government from the military and built a more inclusive government than his predecessors. Ghazouani appointed Prime Minister Mohamed Ould Bilal, who is black, and several other senior cabinet members from historically disadvantaged non-Arab communities such as Afro-Mauritanians.

His government has faced his former boss, Ould Abdel Aziz, in corruption trials. Abdel Aziz was convicted of illicit enrichment and money laundering in December and is now serving a five-year sentence.

But the president has also faced a backlash over growing rights abuses, particularly against government critics and opposition politicians. Its links to the military have also meant that the institution is still influential in policy-making.

Ghazouani represents the old guard, for many, and for those who were looking for complete change, they just haven't seen it, Eizenga said. A lot of people are saying Oh those military people, they don't like to leave power, and that's because it's still very much seen as part of the military.

Afro-Mauritanians who speak mainly Fula, Soninke and Wolof have also criticized the president for a 2022 policy mandating the use of Arabic in primary schools. The policy introduced local languages ​​at the primary level for the first time, but also specified that Arabic be taught to non-Arab children, a move many saw as an imposition. Currently the official language is Arabic and French is widely spoken.

In 2023, the deaths of an Afro-Mauritanian man, Oumar Diop, and a black activist, Soufi Ould Cheine, in police custody led to protests. These demonstrations were met with violent police force.

Corruption also remains a challenge. Critics say that while Ghazouani prosecuted his predecessor, he has largely used new anti-corruption laws and institutions to target the opposition and critics.

Can the National Election Commission (CENI) be trusted?

After years of political turmoil, the election commission was reformed in 2022, under the Ghazouanis government. However, in legislative elections for the 176-member National Assembly held in May 2023, many analysts alleged voting irregularities and the opposition alleged massive fraud.

The ruling Al Insaf won a landslide, winning 107 seats, while Tawassoul, the main opposition, won 11 seats. The African Union considered the vote credible.

The US, in a statement on Thursday, revealed that it provided financial assistance to CENI to help strengthen its processes. US officials, along with delegates from the AU, are expected to observe the election at polling stations across the country.

What is expected next?

Ghazouani is billed to win the majority vote. But unlike in 2019, growing competition from his three closest political rivals could keep him from taking home a clean 50 percent share, some analysts say.

If that happens, the country will vote again in a second round on July 14.

That's not very likely, but I still don't think we can completely rule it out, Eizenga said.

Violence has not been a major issue in past elections although experts say this may be because there has never been a real belief that members of the opposition could have any real chance of winning the vote. However, Saturday's election is expected to be largely peaceful.

Because of its political history, the fact that campaigns are underway and that people are prepared to vote is itself a victory for Mauritania, analysts say, as the country's institutions are strengthened ahead of elections in 2029, when Ghazouani, if he is in office would be unfit to run, requiring a power transfer.