Which big Tory animals could lose their seats in the general election? | 2024 general election

Michael Portillo's ousting became a famous moment in the Labor landslide of 1997. This election could see a series of Tory bigwigs lose their seats if the polls prove correct. From a former leader to the current chancellor, these are the senior Tories at stake.

Iain Duncan Smith

country Chingford and Woodford Green
Most in 2019 1262
challenger LABOR

Most of the former Conservative leaders have eroded during recent elections as the country has become younger and more diverse. He may be helped by a Labor row, which led the party to drop its previous candidate, Faiza Shaheen. She is running as an independent, but is unlikely to be enough to save Duncan Smith.
Risk factor: 4/5

Grant Shapps

country Welwyn Hatfield
Most in 2019 10,955
challenger LABOR

The veteran cabinet minister has often been a safe hand in media appearances for Rishi Sunak, but his place is now under threat from Starmer. What looked like a healthy majority of 11,000 in 2019 is at risk due to Labor's resurgence in these peripheral seats.
Risk factor: 3/5

Liam Fox

country North Somerset
Most in 2019 17,536
challenger LABOR

The former defense secretary and prominent right-wing figure would not have felt threatened by Labor in his rural constituency after the last election, where he enjoyed 53% of the vote. But if the polls are right, he too faces being swept away by the Labor wave.
Risk factor: 2/5

Mark Harper

country Forest of Deccan
Most in 2019 15,869
challenger LABOR

The transport secretary is one of Sunaks' most passionate supporters, but he too risks losing his seat. While it was held by Labor under Tony Blair, it has been in Conservative hands since Harper won it in 2005, after trying and failing to win it four years earlier.
Risk factor: 4/5

Alex the chalk

country Cheltenham
Most in 2019 981
challenger Lib Dems

The moderate justice secretary would have struggled even in a campaign that had gone well for the Conservatives. Given the Tories' struggles, he has little chance of holding a seat in which the Lib Dems have always had a strong presence. They held it in 2010.
Risk factor: 5/5

Gillian Keegan

country Chichester
Most in 2019 21,490
challenger Lib Dems

The education secretary and queen of the sharp media interview is unlikely to be on the at-risk list, but she has been targeted in the Lib Dems' almost surgical campaign, going after seats where they are well-placed to win tactical votes. A tremendous swing is predicted here.
Risk factor: 3/5

Richard Holden

country Basildon and Billericay
Most in 2019 20,412
challenger Reform in the UK

The Tory leader has earned the scorn of party insiders after taking the supposedly safe seat after his north-east constituency was abolished. There's just one problem: UK reform is now set to give him a serious challenge in Essex.
Risk factor: 3/5

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Mel Stride

country Central Devon
Most in 2019 17721
challenger LABOR

The work and pensions secretary was a key figure in Liz Truss' ouster and has provided regular support for Sunak on the airwaves, but he now finds himself on the outer fringes of Labour's potential surge. If it's a really bad night, he can go.
Risk factor: 3/5

Penny Mordaunt

country Portsmouth North
Most in 2019 15780
defiant LABOR

Given how close she came last time, the Commons leader looks set to feature in a seemingly close Tory leadership contest. First, it has the small matter of holding another Portsmouth seat that last fell to Labor during the Blairs' reign.
Risk factor: 3/5

Gavin Williamson

country Stone, Great Wyrley and Penkridge
Most in 2019 New seat
challenger LABOR

The former chief whip, defense and education secretary has caused controversy during his career in various cabinet jobs. He now faces an electoral battle in this new seat of Staffordshire, made up mainly of areas previously held by the Tories. Designed as a close call.
Risk factor: 3/5

James Cleverly

country Braintree
Most in 2019 24673
challenger LABOR

If the home secretary does not return to parliament, it would mean a complete meltdown for the Tories, possibly leaving them below 100 seats. However, some predictions predict defeat in this Essex stronghold, with most tipping it to be at least a close contest. Enough to make you sweat smart.
Risk factor: 1/5

Jeremy Hunt

country Godalming and Ash
Most in 2019 New seat
challenger Lib Dems

Hunt could make history on election night by being the first sitting chancellor to be ousted. To avoid that fate, he will have to see off a strong challenge from the Lib Dems, who are fighting hard in this corner of Surrey. It could be the Portillo moment of the election.
Risk factor: 4/5

Liz Truss

country South West Norfolk
Most in 2019 26,195
challenger LABOR

The former prime minister is trying to stay in parliament. She can't lose such a large majority, can she? A significant reform vote in the seat could jeopardize it, but while even some Tories may cheer for a Labor victory here, most models suggest it will survive.
Risk factor: 2/5