French National Assembly elections: What's at stake and what to expect? | Election News

French voters will cast their ballots on Sunday to elect 577 members of the National Assembly, as the country looks set to enter a new political era.

The election comes after French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap vote triggered by a landslide defeat to the far-right Marine Le Pens Rally National (RN) party in the June 9 European Parliament election.

Polls suggest the upcoming elections will confirm the trend. The RN leads strongly with 36 percent of the vote, followed by the left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) bloc with 28.5 percent, followed by Macron's centrist Alliance Ensemble with 21 percent.

If the results echo the polls, Macron may have to live with an antagonistic prime minister, no matter who is elected.

How do elections work in France?

Voting opens at 06:00 GMT and is expected to end at 16:00 GMT in most of the country, but polling stations in Paris and other major cities will remain open until 18:00 GMT.

To win a majority in the National Assembly, a party or alliance needs 289 seats, just over halfway in the House of Representatives. Macron's outgoing coalition fell short of that number, limiting his ability to push his legislative agenda.

For the decision on any of the 577 countries to be announced on Sunday, July 30, two conditions must be met. First, voting participation must be at least 25 percent. Second, a candidate must win an absolute majority of the votes cast.

In a multi-party system like France's, this usually means that many, if not most, races go to a second round of voting, this time scheduled for July 7.

Only those candidates who secure at least 12.5 percent of the vote in the first round can advance to the second round, effectively narrowing the field of contestants.

Why are these choices so different?

Traditionally, National Assembly elections are held immediately after the presidential vote, and thus reflect the same popular mood. The result is a prime minister from the same political party as the president, who can then implement policies with a strong mandate.

But those power dynamics have now shifted, and for the first time in 22 years, France will have a state of coexistence: a deeply unpopular president governing alongside a government elected as a vote of discontent against Macron himself.

It will mark the beginning of a new way of governing and the end of the presidential agenda, said Emmanuel Dupuy, president of the Institute for European Perspectives and Security Studies, a think tank on diplomacy and political analysis. Macronism has already almost collapsed and will emerge from the election completely wiped out, he said.

How did we get here?

Macron first came to power in 2017 riding a wave of support as he vowed to create a centrist bloc, bringing the left and moderate right together. But it wasn't long before his language began to sound too restrained to the ears of people in the suburbs, he took on the nickname Jupiter. His economic reforms were too right-wing to the liberals who had previously supported him; and his style of government was seen as too despotic by many voters on the right and the left.

Now, the election could mark the end of Jupiters solo show, as France looks set to enter a new political era.

He runs the country like a CEO of a company, said Samantha de Bendern, fellow at Chatham House. But a country is not a company and he failed to build alliances with partners Macron is a loner, de Bendern said.

One of the starkest signals of his isolation was the Yellow Vest movement, a period of violent protests in 2018. What began as lower-middle-income workers outraged by planned increases in oil taxes turned into in a broader movement against presidents, there was perceived bias in favor of the elite. His second term was marked by a hotly contested bill in 2023 to raise the country's pension by two years, which turned into another major domestic challenge as he faced widespread opposition.

And while he won a second term in 2022 in good measure by scaring, rather than attracting, voters about the possibility of a far-right takeover of the presidency, the tactic seems to have tired many. There is a sense of anger that people are fed up with showing this fear for Le Pen while being forced to vote for Macron to keep the far right at bay, de Bendern said.

What is the dediabolization of Le Pens?

Meanwhile, Le Pen has meticulously crafted a so-called de-demonization de-diabolization strategy over the past two decades, aimed at broadening the party's base while toning down her radical discourse to distance herself from many of the references that had made her RN very toxic for some voters.

The party has long been associated with notorious racist, xenophobic and anti-Semitic slurs. Her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, once convicted of hate speech after he said Nazi gas chambers were a detail of history, was expelled from the party in 2015. Le Pen convinced the moderate right that she was not a threat to democracy and conquered areas traditionally close to the extreme left, especially in the Communist Party, promising social welfare policies and strict restrictions on migrants.

many [by voting NR] are expressing their opposition to a system that they feel is depriving them of what they deserve in favor of people, mostly foreigners, who are receiving benefits that are not due, said Baptiste Roger-Lacan, historian and political analyst with a focus on right-wing parties in Europe.

Today, the party's candidate for prime minister is Jordan Bardella, an impeccably dressed 28-year-old who looks like a cross between The Wolf of Wall Street and Superman's alter ego, Clark Kent. However, he comes from the suburbs and talks to his tens of thousands of followers not only on the street, but also on TikTok. He has no experience in government.

On the other hand, the center-left parties have united under the New Popular Front. Its most vocal cause has been its support for the Palestinian cause amid the war in Gaza, a position that has gained the group popularity among young voters and the Muslim community.

In contrast, NR has strongly supported Israel by condemning pogroms on Israeli soil and attacking the leader of the leftist La France Insoumise party, Jean-Luc Melenchon, for failing to call the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel terrorism, something that caused friction. within the block itself.

What does a far-right victory mean?

The most serious consequence of a victory for the RN will be on the home front. While the party now says anti-Semitism is a left-wing problem, it has shifted its focus against immigrants and Muslims. France is home to the largest Muslim community in Europe, with families based there for several generations.

While Bardella did not specify what specific legislation he would push to combat Islamic ideologies, he said that in the past the party would work to ban the wearing of the Islamic headscarf in public spaces and make it easier to close mosques.

The RN has also made its top priority the adoption of strict border controls, the abolition of birthright citizenship, a practice that has for centuries granted citizenship to those born in France of foreign parents, and the introduction via constitutional referendum of national preference , a system. by which one would be excluded from benefiting from social security rights unless one had a French passport.

It is clear that NR is still xenophobic, so every foreigner has something to lose, every foreigner who does not have a European heritage will have something to lose if NR is elected, said Roger-Lacan.

What about foreign policy?

With his eyes on power, Bardella has softened or overturned some of the party's traditional positions. He took a U-turn against Ukraine, saying he was committed to continuing to provide military support to Kiev, while rejecting accusations by critics that some party members have ties to the Kremlin.

However, given Macron's steadfast stance on Ukraine and France's role as a pillar of the European Union, a government led by Bardella that is less committed to the European project would mark a difference.

During a press conference on Monday, Bardella said he opposes sending French troops and weaponry capable of striking targets on Russian soil.

He is at a stage where he is trying to appease the non-NR electorate, and possibly future EU partners, but it is clear that the party winning power would add a lot of tension between France and the rest of the EU, he said. Roger-Lacan, who is also former deputy editor-in-chief at the Le Grand Continent think tank.

Unlike Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who had moved towards more Atlantic, pro-NATO, pro-EU positions years before her election victory in 2022, explains Roger-Lacan, the conversion of NRs sounds extremely contextual.

However, if the far right wins the election, observers note, it may end up refraining from creating much of a stir if it wins the election, as the group is playing the long game. His ultimate goal: capture the presidency in 2027.