The instability of NATO's main members hinders its effectiveness

Political turmoil in the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany is affecting NATO's ability to address global challenges, the Center for European Policy Analysis said on Monday.

The group made its assessment a day before the start of NATO's annual Summit in Washington DC with representatives from its 32 member countries.

We see this growing opening that North Korea, Iran, Russia and China are joining and potentially others in the world outside the West, CEPA's Transatlantic Defense and Security Fellow Minna Alander told a briefing on Monday. Is the West able to keep its word on things? When it comes to the alliance itself, the major countries really need to get their act together.

The upheaval of the UK Conservative Party in recent weeks, Sunday's fractured election in France and the upcoming US presidential election are among the many factors challenging NATO as its members gather in Washington this week. Continuing aid to Ukraine's defense against Russia is one of the main concerns at this year's summit, as well as consideration of whether to admit Ukraine to the group.

The summit is taking place as the organization celebrates the 75th anniversary of a collective defense pact. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was formed in 1949 after World War II to counter Soviet aggression against Europe. This week's event will kick off at the Mellon Auditorium in Washington DC where the treaty was first signed.

NATO is facing a completely different threat than the one we faced 75 years ago, said CEPA International Leadership Council member Stephen Twitty. Heck, we face a completely different threat than the one we faced five years ago.

He listed illegal missile defense, space-based technology, cyber technology, disinformation and information wars as threats to global security.

We must prepare as part of NATO not only for today, but also for the future, because we are acting in the future now, he said. We were seeing the way the war is evolving and how dynamic it is on the European continent with Ukraine and Israel's war in Gaza.

Twitty expects that one of the items to be discussed at the NATO summit this week will be to increase the military-industrial capabilities of member countries to support Ukraine while also maintaining their readiness for war. CEPA said Spain, Greece and other countries could help the war effort in Ukraine by supplying Patriot missile systems to bolster what the US and Germany have already provided.

The group also said NATO should discuss the possibility of Ukraine being more offensive in its war strategy, saying air defense alone is like chemotherapy without removing the tumor.

CEPA said NATO needs to do a better job of defining its thresholds for collective defense and improving the resilience of its members. As it stands now, the US plays an extraordinary role.

During his time in office, former President Donald Trump routinely chided European allies for their over-reliance on the US for military support and funding and for their failure to devote 2% of gross domestic product to defense. This year, 23 of NATO's 32 member states meet that threshold, up from nine in 2021.

It's very easy. Nothing is more successful than success. We must win, CEPA senior member of Defense and Security Nico Lange told NATO during the conference. Winning means that anyone who tries to attack an alliance member will have to lose. This should be obvious.

He said that Ukraine's lack of NATO membership is precisely the gray area that Vladimir Putin is trying to exploit. Not having him exploit the gray area and show strength and consistency, that is most important for NATO right now.

However, it is unlikely that the US and Germany will extend an invitation to start membership talks for Ukraine this week. Banning Ukraine from NATO membership, however, encourages Russia to continue the war, CEPA said, and is a contentious issue within NATO.

The main question for Putin is not a few square kilometers in Ukraine here or there, he said. The main question for him is to challenge the European security order.