Dividing the election result in the US is quite difficult, never forget the impact of the vote on the markets. Regardless, one view that emerges is that a Joe Biden victory would risk the risks in Asia if it curbs some of the tensions with China.
Disputes in areas such as technology, human rights and trade will endure but are likely to be resolved in a more predictable and less aggressive way if Biden defeats President Donald Trump, according to UBS Group AG and AMP Capital Investors Ltd.
A Biden presidency will help reduce chaos and this will be a big change, said Nader Naeimi, head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors in Sydney, in an interview. Wild fluctuations in political decision-making, particularly with China, led to an increase in the capital risk premium for Asian assets.
Biden currently leads national and state polls. Elections, deteriorating US-China ties, and an uneven economic recovery from the pandemic are among the major risks facing investors. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month warned them to prepare for instability around the Nov. 3 vote.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen about 22% since Trumps inauguration, but has remained the S&P 500 index since the White House reassessed the trade war in 2018.
Here is a series of views on the possible change of American power.
We think a Biden victory would be a more positive outcome for Asian stocks, with a more predictable and less overtly hostile foreign policy towards China, likely, Mark UBS Global Wealth Management strategists Haefele wrote in an August 17 note. A potential tax increase under Biden would have little direct impact on Asia.
Markets appear to see a Biden-Harris victory as potential to reduce political and FX volatility, as well as lead to less immediate policy aggression against China, analysts at Nomura Holdings Inc. said. in a note on August 19, referring to Vice Presidential nominees Kamala Harris. This could be a significant benefit to emerging markets and Asian currencies, including the yuan, they wrote.
A Biden administration is likely to degrade political tensions with China, said Sebastien Galy, a senior macro strategist at Nordea Investment Funds SA in Luxembourg, adding much greater stability should help Pacific Asia enter these economies. .
Biden would certainly focus more on strengthening the US alliance system, with increased focus on human rights issues, but he would certainly be less aggressive on trade issues, said Dan Fineman, co-chair of the strategy. Asia-Pacific capital in Credit Suisse Group AG. A Trump re-election would leave Asia largely where it is now, but perhaps with a easing in China-US relations, he said. After the vote, it is also possible that Trump will feel less need to act harshly on China, he added.
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