A government-appointed committee has said India has overcome the peak of the coronavirus and predicted the epidemic could be brought under control by early next year if all measures are followed. But the onset of winter and upcoming festivals can increase susceptibility to infection and laziness at this point can lead back to a nail. Relaxation in safety measures can lead to a significant increase. It could be “up to 26 lakh cases within a month,” the committee said, adding that only 30 percent of the population has developed immunity so far.
The committee stressed that safeguards should continue. “If all protocols are followed, the pandemic can be controlled early next year with minimal active cases by the end of February,” the panel concluded.
The total number of infections by the end of the epidemic may be around 105 lakh (10.5 million). The current figure is 75 lakes.
In the absence of the blockade in March, India’s total deaths could have exceeded 25 lakh by August this year, the committee said. Currently, the country has recorded 1.14 fatal disasters.
However, blockages are now undesirable and should only exist in narrow geographical areas. The country, the panel said, should now move towards a full resumption of activities.
There is some evidence that large gatherings are causing rapid spread, the committee said, pointing to Kerala, where after the Onam festival celebration from August 22nd to September 2nd, a sharp increase was observed on September 8th. The chance of infection increased by 32 percent and the effectiveness of the medical response fell by 22 percent for Kerala in September, the committee said.
The committee was set to come up with the “Indian National Supermodel” – a mathematical model for Covid-19 – that could shed light on the possible trajectory of the pandemic in India. Its members are from the IIT and the branches of the Indian Medical Research Council, the country’s nodal organ in the fight against coronavirus.
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