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Moe, Shahab, Meili react to exponential growth in Saskatchewans COVID-19 cases

 


Saskatchewan, along with its neighbors Manitoba and North Dakota, have shown exponential increases in their 7-day average of new daily COVID-19 cases, for the period October 1 through November 14. The average number of 7-day Saskatchewans cases doubled from 15 to 30 in five days to October 15, doubled again from 30 to 60 in 14 days on October 29, and doubled a third time 12 days later to an average of 120 cases per day on November 10th. closely reflect that of Manitoba, but are approximately 17 to 18 days behind the curve of our eastern neighbors.

Asked about this, Prime Minister Scott Moe said on November 17, We think we are moving forward with a number of changes here today. And it is our true hope that these will not only increase the numbers, here in Saskatchewan, but make a difference and start bending that curve down.

These changes she referred to included restrictions on the size of private home meetings and a provincial mask mandate announced that day.

Moe talked about some very active discussions that need to take place between business response team (BRT) governments, public health, athletics, recreation, restaurants, bars, casinos and bingo halls, for example. Worship services are also involved in discussions to make those activities in the community safer. And so I would ask, if you are involved in those industries, or those community activities, think of some suggestions you may have for how we can act safer and call BRT and suggest them. It is not saying that they will be included. The numbers over the next few days will determine some of the decisions and ultimately, Drs. Shahab will give his advice on them. But if you have suggestions for, for example, not to use the locker rooms in any way, any advice you have will be appreciated.

Chief Medical Officer Dr. Saqib Shahab said about the exponential increase of cases, I think that is actually exactly the concern. And if you look at our effective breeding number, and I will show it on Thursday, it is about three to four. So each case generates not only five to eight contacts, but three to four additional cases.

And the reason for this is, obviously in the family environment, sometimes it is very difficult not to have a second broadcast. But in the home environment, we should all have a plan. If I have a fever and headache, I will isolate and stay away from everyone at home, get tested, but then do my best to make sure the transmission does not happen at home.

So very hard to do, but with quick tests and isolation, you can reduce family transmission rates from 50 percent of the family to less than 10 percent. Again, this is an area. But, of course, all your close contacts should also be insulating, so if they become the case, they have zero contact. So this is a very effective strategy for families and close contacts, so that all the close contacts of an issue are isolated immediately. And so it spoils the overall broadcast.

Shahab spoke about the importance of reducing the number of contacts we have every day as a way to combat this increase.

I will present updated epidemiology and modeling on Thursday, but again, modeling is based on data, Shahab said.

Forecasts vary from day to day. If we increase our number of contacts, the modeling trends up. If we reduce the number of contacts and reduce the number of cases being generated, modeling trends are declining. So modeling is very dynamic, and to speak well of that Thursday, but it is very sensitive to our individual actions every day.

Moe added, I would just say we have six weeks until the Christmas holiday season and this is a time for all of us to think about what that holiday season will look like. We have some work to do, changing how many people we come in contact with each day, reducing that number to have a successful Christmas season where we are able to see family and friends, at least to some degree.

MDP response

New Democratic Party leader Ryan Meili, when asked about exponential growth, said it was a really troubling trajectory.

Speaking from Saskatoon on Nov. 16, Meili also said it drove him crazy that such information has not been disseminated by the province, highlighting a point he often makes about the lack of recent modeling figures from the government.

Meili said, They know more than you are able to understand by looking back. They are able to see what the cases are doing, what interactions are happening and what we are seeing, in the coming weeks. They know where this broadcast is happening and how it will be accelerated. And the fact that you have to understand those numbers yourself, is the number one failure.

Failure number two is, to be honest, exactly what you pointed out, we are growing very, very fast. And what I said on Friday is, where would I be now, talking to Manitoba, talking to North Dakota and Alberta and saying, What do you want to do three weeks ago, when you were, where are we today?

Because these are the choices we have to make, not seeing what they are doing now, as it is too late. We must act before we are in their situation.

Manitoba has also seen an exponential increase in the average number of 7-day deaths, advancing from an average of one death per day on October 8 to two on October 25 to four on November 6 to eight on November 15. , Meili said it was very, very disturbing.

We know they exist between the growing number of cases and people who really get sick, the ICU being overloaded and the rising death rates. The fact that we lost two people here yesterday (November 15) worries me a lot, because we have started to see that the part of 60-80 cases per day appears, 100 cases per day. Now that we are pushing 200, or more. Then we will start seeing it in the following days.

Meili said that is why it was so important to act now, instead of waiting two or three weeks from now, when they were in a situation like Manitoba, or even worse.



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