International
Secret Roadmap for India-Pakistan Peace Mediated by Senior UAE Kings
About 24 hours after military chiefs from India and Pakistan surprised the world last month with a rare joint commitment to honor a 2003 ceasefire agreement, the UAE top diplomat arrived in New Delhi for a quick visit a daily.
The UAE official reading of the February 26 meeting provided some clues as to what Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed spoke with Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, stressing that they “discussed all regional and international issues of common interest and they exchanged views on them. “
Yet behind closed doors, the India-Pakistan ceasefire marked a milestone in UAE-mediated secret talks that began months ago, according to officials aware of the situation who asked not to be identified. The ceasefire, one said, is just the beginning of a broader roadmap to create a lasting peace between neighbors, the two have nuclear weapons and regularly make a territory dispute decades old.
The next step in the process, the official said, involves both sides returning envoys to New Delhi and Islamabad, who withdrew in 2019 after Pakistan protested India’s move to revoke seven decades of autonomy for the disputed Muslim-majority state of Jammu and Kashmir. Then comes the difficult part: Talks on resuming trade and a lasting solution to Kashmir, the theme of three wars since India and Pakistan became independent from Britain in 1947.
Over the years, India and Pakistan have routinely made peace efforts only to make them fall quickly, especially since both sides often use the issue to stir up emotions around election time. Officials said expectations were low that the current detente would reach beyond the return of envoys and a resumption of trade through their land border in Punjab.
But the process appears to be the most coordinated effort in years, and comes as the Biden administration seeks broader peace talks on Afghanistan – a country the two countries have fought for influence for years. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to support growth and concentrate military resources on the border with China, while Pakistani leaders are also facing economic problems and seeking to make a good impression with the US and other powers.
The Pakistani Foreign Ministry did not comment on the talks or the role of the UAE, while the foreign ministries of India and the UAE had no immediate comment.
Last week Pakistani Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa urged India to “bury the past and move forward” while saying the military was ready to enter into talks to resolve “all our unresolved issues”. The comments came a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan called for a resolution on Kashmir, which he described as “the only issue holding us back”.
On Saturday, Modi sent a tweet congratulating Khan after he was diagnosed with Covid-19 – another sign that relations between the countries are warming up.
The UAE, which has historical trade and diplomatic ties with India and Pakistan, has taken on a more assertive international role under de facto ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The biggest change has been in the Middle East where the Gulf Arab state has intervened in conflicts and supported regional groups and leaders. But it has also turned to Asia as it strengthens political alliances beyond its role as a global trading and logistics hub.
India-Pakistan ties were effectively severed two years ago after a suicide attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir killed 40 Indian soldiers, prompting the Modi government to authorize airstrikes on suspected terror targets inside Pakistan. The joint statement last month said the two sides “agreed to address each other ‘s core issues”, signaling a broader discussion on Kashmir and terrorism.
Some data over the last few months showed the role of the UAE. In November, Jaishankar met with bin Zayed and the crown prince on a two-day visit to Abu Dhabi, followed by Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi next month. Approximately two weeks before the February 25 announcement, the UAE foreign minister held a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan “where they discussed regional and international issues of interest”. And just days ago, India allowed Khan’s planes to fly over Indian airspace as he headed to Sri Lanka for a state visit – a practice suspended since the 2019 fighting.
Following the ceasefire, the UAE was one of several countries to issue a statement welcoming the ceasefire announcement, highlighting its “close historical ties” with India and Pakistan, and welcoming “the efforts made by both countries to In Washington, DC, State Department spokeswoman Ned Price avoided questioning what role the United States played in bringing the two sides closer, while urging Pakistan to play a constructive role in Afghanistan, Kashmir and elsewhere.
“Pakistan obviously has an important role to play when it comes to Afghanistan and what happens beyond its other border,” Price said on February 25th. “So obviously, we’re going to pay a lot of attention to it.”
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