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New Covid growth in Chile shows how vulnerable the UK is until we are fully vaccinated

 


Asked about Chile at the Covid Mondays conference, Chief Medical Officer Prof Chris Whitty said it was unclear what was going on there but gently warned that it could happen here as well.

We absolutely need to learn from those countries that are well ahead of us or behind us in terms of vaccine deployment, he said.

That’s why we want to [unwind lockdown] in a consistent manner. Because the assumption is that just because you vaccinate a lot of people, then the problem goes away – I think Chile is a good corrector for that.

Indeed if you want a comparator for Chile, the UK is probably as close as you will get. Chile is well ahead of us in double doses of vaccines, but in singles we are not that far away.

Like Chile, our vaccine mix is ​​also divided between mRNA and conventional shocks – which are thought to provide greater protection against newer variants of the virus. Just as the efficiency of Sinovac seems to have dropped in the face of the Brazilian variant, the AstraZeneca strike is less effective against the dissimilar South African version.

Three new modeling studies released by Sage on Monday further highlight the Chilean risk.

Central projections from Imperial College London and the University of Warwick suggest we will be hit by a modest but very real third wave in late summer, pushing deaths back again between 100 and 250 a day. This would not be enough to overload the NHS, but it would nevertheless provide a serious public health challenge.

This may seem pessimistic given the current situation, but some of the basic assumptions made by the modelers seem, to my eye at least, quite optimistic. They assume 90 percent of the vaccine is given to people under the age of 50; they set AstraZeneca efficacy against infection at 63 to 65 percent; and, most importantly of all, they assume that no new variant appears.

The third model from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) reveals what happens if the assumptions that affect the transmission of the virus are revised – and it’s not nice.

Assumes that the effectiveness of AstraZeneca against infection is a 31 percent more modest. The resulting third wave then rumbles from late July to early August, taking deaths back to over 1,000 a day and creating a crisis of a magnitude similar to that of January.

Many would argue that the LSHTM study takes a very faint picture of the ability of AstraZeneca vaccines to stop asymptomatic infection and they may be right. But even if you take that view, the model hints at what might happen if a new variant explodes and reduces the effectiveness of vaccines.

If that were to happen – and some think that as we suppress the UK version through vaccination, it becomes more likely – then we could indeed become Europe’s Chile.

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