Wales’ Leading Public Health Physician on Delta Variants and Our Fight Against It

Leading public health experts warn that delta variants of the coronavirus are “rapidly growing and expanding” throughout Wales.

Dr. Giri Shankar, Pandemic Incident Director of the Welsh Public Health Service, More contagious strain It currently causes as many as 97% of new cases in some parts of the country.

A few weeks ago there was initial concern about B.1.617.2 in Cardiff, but it soon became clear that the largest cluster of cases was in a seaside town in North Wales.

read more: Welsh government says Welsh is at the beginning of a third wave

At the Covid Hotspot in Wales ConwyThe current 7-day infection rate is approaching 100 per 100,000 (91.3), and Denbighshire is currently the second to record no positive cases between April 25 and May 1. The number is as high as 77.3. In neighboring Flintshire, the test positive rate now reaches 6.1%, well above the Welsh average of 2.6%.

Case rates remain well below their April 2020 and January 2021 peaks, but Delta strains now appear to be present on all Wales health commissions with embedded community infections.

Worryingly, according to an analysis in Scotland Risk of hospitalization With Delta seems to be twice as many as the Alpha (Kent) variant that spread to Wales last winter. Currently, 12 people in Wales are hospitalized for Delta strains, half of whom have not received Covid jabs.

Dr. Shanker, who was awarded the MBE last month for his contributions to Wales’ public health, said the growth of the delta mutant was “not unexpected” because epidemiology was “a couple of weeks behind England.” Stated.

He said that daily cross-border travel between Wales and England (positive cases now reach 70,000) was a major driver of the virus epidemic, with increased migration and activity during the half-year break. Said there is.

Experienced health care workers also said that the number of positive cases has increased significantly among younger age groups who have not yet received one or both vaccines.

“It’s a combination of people’s movements, more contagious viruses, and a population that is mostly susceptible to young adults,” he said.

Dr. Shanker emphasized that the NHS Hospital in Wales is currently very busy with non-Covid patients as regular services are beginning to be reintroduced.

“They may not currently have many Covid patients, but the hospital beds are full due to the backlog of all other treatments,” he explained.

“As the number of cases in the community increases, it is inevitable that at some point the immune system will not be able to effectively fight off the virus or will sadly go to the hospital because of the underlying condition that predisposes it to become more severe. Some people are infected, “he added.

“The big unknown now is whether this will be a huge number. [of additional admissions] Or manageable number. We are enthusiastic about it.

“The NHS capacity is constantly reaching its limits throughout the year, so as more patients are admitted to the hospital, some non-urgent selective work needs to be suspended or postponed.

“It’s like a waterproof container with different compartments. If you squeeze a part of the system, it will appear elsewhere.”

According to an analysis conducted last week, Dr. Shanker said almost all new positive Covid cases in northern Wales were delta mutations.

“Aneurin Bevan UHB, Cardiff, and Veil UHB also exceed 75-80%, so we see a” stock replacement “as a whole. The Kent (alpha) variant has already been replaced by the delta variant. “

Dr. Shanker said the Welsh government was in favor of suspending the relaxation of blockage restrictions for a month to increase the first, especially second dose of vaccine on people’s arms.

“Wales vaccinates about 20,000 to 22,000 people daily, so we can vaccinate about 150,000 times a week. We can do 500,000 jabs in four weeks, which is a mistake. It’s not useful, “he said.

“We also have time to look at the level of translation from community activity to hospital activity. If community activity increases but hospitalizations do not increase proportionately, most infected people have a mild illness. Means that “”

The latest research shows that the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are very effective in reducing Covid-19 death and serious illness.

“But what is still uncertain is their effectiveness in preventing symptomatic infections, and their estimates range from 40% to 60-70%, depending on the various vaccine brands,” said Dr. Shankar. Says.

“But a high proportion of the vaccinated population [than other parts of the UK] Certainly an advantage. Even with the increasing number of Delta cases, our public health message is still very strong in telling people to get both doses of jabs each time their turn comes.

“And for those who have refused vaccinations in the past, it’s never too late to say’yes’ again for some reason. “

Dr. Shanker repeated the prime minister’s “strong” advice earlier this year, urging people to “not push the limits of the rules.”

“We still need to consider who we meet, how many people we meet, where we meet, and for what purpose,” he said.

“Most of the population is in compliance with the law and follows the guidance. There are occasional reports of non-compliance, but current data show that it is a minority.”

Scientific advisors from the UK and Wales governments say that 80% of people need to have Covid-19 immunity to reach herd immunity.

Asked if that was achievable, Dr. Shanker added: “We have achieved even higher levels than certain groups, such as the elderly and long-term care facilities.

“But we need that level of coverage across all age groups, so efforts to get all young people vaccinated in the coming weeks and months are very important. Will be. “

Dr. Shanker said that the “characteristic” of a respiratory virus is its ability to change its structure, shape, and properties. He certainly admitted that the Delta variant was not the last strain we encountered.

“That’s why it’s important to have a very sensitive and very effective surveillance system,” he said.

“Wales is in a particularly advantageous position because it has the best genome sequencing capabilities in the world. You can understand new viruses, strains, and their behavior in real time.

“At some point in the future, when vaccine technology is developed and adapted, we may see more multivariate vaccines covering multiple circulating strains, so we can put them in annual boosters. . “