Coronavirus has spread rapidly around the world since the end of last year, new genetic analysis shows |

A new genetic analysis of the Covid-19 causative virus from more than 7,600 patients worldwide has been widespread in humans since late last year and must have spread very rapidly after the first infection. Is shown.

Researchers in the UK examined mutations in the virus and found evidence that it spread rapidly, but there was no evidence that the virus was more likely to become infected or cause serious illness.

“The virus is changing, but that doesn’t make it worse,” François Barrouux, a genetics researcher at the Institute of Genetics at the University of London, told CNN.

Balloux and colleagues derived virus sequences from a huge global database used by scientists around the world to share data. They said they looked at samples taken from different locations at different times, indicating that the virus began to infect people at the end of last year.

“This precludes all scenarios in which SARSCoV-2 may have been epidemic long before it was identified and therefore may already have infected a large proportion of the population.” And the Balloux team are Infection, Genetics and Evolution.

That’s one piece of bad news. Some doctors hoped the virus would spread for months, quietly infecting far more people than reported. It offers the hope that there may be some immunity already built up in some populations.

“Everyone wanted it, and so did I,” Balloux said.

Their findings pour cold water into such ideas. Balloux estimates that at most 10% of the world’s population is infected with the virus.

Between humans and bats

In many different studies, the new coronavirus, often referred to by scientists as SARS-CoV-2, originated in the bat, but had to infect another animal before it could jump into humans. The first human case was reported in December last year in Wuhan, China.

The virus makes a mistake every time it replicates itself, and these mutations can be used as so-called molecular clocks that track the virus through time and geography.

“Our results are in line with previous estimates and point to all sequences that share a common ancestor towards the end of 2019. This is the period during which SARS-CoV-2 jumped into human hosts. The team writes.

“It’s only recently,” said Baru. “I’m really confident that the host jump happened at the end of last year,” he said.

Virus samples taken from every corner of the globe show multiple mutations, which are similar mutations. “Everything is everywhere,” the team wrote.

“It’s been introduced, introduced, and introduced in almost every country,” Balloux added.

They also support the suspicion that the virus had infected people in Europe, the United States, and other countries weeks or months before the first official cases were reported in January and February. I also found evidence. Balloux said finding the “first” patient in any country is impossible.

“All these ideas to find zero patients are pointless,” he said.

The findings of the Balloux team were reviewed by another expert, a process called peer review, before being published in the journal. He said some reports by other teams published online on what’s called a preprint website may have drawn false conclusions.

“All viruses mutate naturally. Mutations are not bad in themselves, and there is nothing to suggest that SARS-CoV-2 mutates faster or slower than expected. So far, I don’t know if SARS-CoV-2 is more or less deadly, and it’s contagious. “

Lane Warmbrod is an analyst at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, tracking a report on the new coronavirus genetics. She said more research is needed in animals to show how alterations in the genetics of a virus can make it more or less infectious or pathogenic.

“Just because these studies say that these mutations are spreading or dominating, it doesn’t mean anything other than knowing what happened. Biological It doesn’t really tell us what’s going on in the world, “Warmrod told CNN.

Mutation reports can be important for teams working on drugs and vaccines to combat coronaviruses. In particular, vaccins should target the part of the virus that is conserved.