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New studies suggest a faster and faster spread of COVID-19 than originally thought




Backtracking models suggest that the first COVID-19 cases occurred earlier than previously thought.

Researchers at the University of Kent in the United Kingdom have shown that the first patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) probably date back to October 2019. It also caused the new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) – which occurred faster and earlier.

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Early origin of COVID-19 and faster global spread

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers have attempted to follow the SARS-CoV-2 transmission route. The important question focuses on the dates when the virus arrived in different countries. The first officially identified case occurred in early December 2019, but new studies show that the first case is likely to occur earlier.

Researchers at the University of Kent, led by David Roberts, published their findings in an open access journal on the possible beginnings of the COVID-19 pandemic. PLOS pathogen..

Roberts et al. Reuse the model using a scenario, using a mathematical model originally developed for conservation science to investigate species extinction events based on sightings, and the COVID-19 timeline. I went back.

Back in the origin of COVID-19, the team reversed the mathematical model and used data from the earliest known cases across 203 countries.

According to the findings, the first case occurred in China from early October to mid-November 2019. The most likely scenario shows that the first case occurred on 17 November and was widespread worldwide by January 2020.

In addition, the model is also identified if: COVID-19 expansion In the first five countries other than China.

It is estimated that the first case outside of China occurred in Japan on January 3, 2020, and the first case in Europe occurred on January 12, 2020 in Spain. In North America, the first case of infection occurred in the United States on January 16, 2020.

This suggests that the pandemic occurred earlier, faster, and spread farther than previously recognized.

Adapt interdisciplinary methods, but be careful

The adaptation and use of extinction-based models to understand current pandemics is particularly insightful, as viral infection patterns may have characteristics similar to population extinction. This includes data on vital statistics, genetic diversity, and related environmental factors.

The method we used was originally developed by me and my colleagues to date the extinction, but here we will use it to date the outbreak and spread of COVID-19. This new application in the field of epidemiology provides a new opportunity to understand the outbreak and spread of the disease, as it requires only a small amount of data. “

David Roberts, the lead author of the study.

However, be careful when interpreting analysis results such as correlations and causality, as differences in the nature of the data can be confusing. Nonetheless, computational models across different disciplines of science may provide new information for studying epidemiological dynamics.

Scientists have said that this new method could be further applied to understand the spread of COVID-19 to other countries and to track the spread of new SARS-CoV-2 mutants. The quality and quantity of data available improves the accuracy of the model and allows hindsight to investigate patterns of infection. You can use it to predict potential patterns in the future.

A better understanding of the exact origin of COVID-19 can improve your knowledge of how the virus spreads and how fast it can spread. This, in turn, helps to form a containment policy.


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